Russia threatens to reassert 2021 demands if the U.S. yields on Ukraine, warns OSW expert.
Most Likely Scenario
Dr. Witold Rodkiewicz, chief specialist of the Russian Studies Center, believes the Trump‑Putin meeting will not produce significant changes. Both leaders will find their positions divergent and part ways, presenting a relatively positive outlook.
Pesymistyczny Scenariusz: Monachium skrzyżowane z Jałtą
In the most pessimistic scenario, the talks could resemble a mixture of Munich and Yalta: Trump and Putin would define an agreement reflecting Russia’s long‑standing goals—disarmament of Ukraine, halt of NATO expansion, and cessation of Washington’s efforts to broaden the alliance. Russia would win the conflict, and the United States would be left disengaged from an arena of no interest to them.
Meeting in Anchorage
On 15 August in Anchorage, Alaska, Trump will meet Putin. The primary topic will be a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s press chief also indicated that the leaders will discuss normalization of U.S.–Russian relations beyond the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia Uninterested in a Ceasefire
Dr. Rodkiewicz stresses that Russia regards any ceasefire as irrelevant; it seeks Ukraine’s capitulation instead. Recommending that Ukraine withdraw its fortifications in Donetsk would leave it undermanned, a condition Russia views as harmless. This stance shows Russia’s genuine disinterest in a ceasefire and a readiness to proceed toward victory.
Next Steps for Russia – “This Demand Will Surface Quickly”
Assuming Trump accepts Russian terms—an uncertain prospect—the warning underscores that the conflict will not simply conclude. Russia sees the war as a matter of regional security order. If the U.S. concedes on Ukraine, Russia will promptly revive its 2021 demands, including the removal of NATO infrastructure—particularly from Poland—this claim will arise fast.
Sources
**Kaynaklar:** Gazeta.pl, IAR
