Belarus finishes construction of two fortified regions ahead of Zapad 2025 drills; conflicting figures on troop participation and Lithuania’s airspace restrictions due to Russian drone threats.
Zapad 2025: When Will the Drills Take Place?
Fortified Zones Complete in August
In mid-August, Belarus completed construction of four of the planned so-called fortified regions. Defense Minister Wiktar Chrenin stated that two of them—the Volkovysk and Smorgon areas, located near the borders with Poland and Lithuania—will be used during the Zapad 2025 drills scheduled from September 12 to 16. He noted that Belarusian and Russian units will conduct exercises near the European Union borders to counter a potential enemy attack.
Conflicting Figures on Troop Numbers
Minsk claims up to 13,000 soldiers will participate in Zapad 2025, though initial reports suggested the number would be over ten times higher. According to Lithuania, 30,000 Belarusian and Russian troops are expected to take part. Mindaugas Mazonas, head of the Lithuanian military intelligence, said only 8,000 troops will be on Belarus itself, with just 2,000 being Russian. The likelihood of hybrid attacks on other countries during this period is “truly very low.” He added, “We really know a lot, and we’re still gathering information to learn even more.” For comparison, around 200,000 military personnel participated in exercises several months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2021.
Lithuania Closes Airspace Amid Drills and Drone Threats
In response to Zapad 2025 and incidents involving Russian drones, Lithuania has closed part of its airspace near the Belarus border. The defense ministry announced the flight ban will remain in place until October 1, potentially extending it if the threat from Russian drones does not diminish. Recall, in July, two Russian Gerbera drones—mimicking Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles—entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus. One crashed near the border, while the second, which crashed on a military training ground near Kaunas, carried an explosive payload.
Source: Gazeta, https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/bialorus#anchorLink, https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/loty#anchorLink, https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/drony#anchorLink
