Poland’s inflation rate dropped to 2.8% year-on-year in August, well below market forecasts, while food prices continued to rise.
August CPI Falls Below Projections
Poland’s GUS agency reported an inflation rate of 2.8% year-on-year in August, which is below market projections and brings the CPI closer to the NBP target range of 2.5% ±1. Poland’s inflation, which reached 3.1% in July, was slightly stronger than expected, with a 2.9% consensus.
Key Drivers of August Data
The 2.8% year-on-year inflation rate was driven by higher prices in food and non-alcoholic beverages (approximately 4.8% year-on-year, marginally lower month-on-month) and modest increases in energy costs (approximately 2.3% year-on-year). Meanwhile, fuel prices fell by approximately -7.7% year-on-year and -1.9% month-on-month, significantly influencing August’s reading.
Month-on-Month Deflation Recorded
While year-on-year inflation remained high, month-on-month consumer prices fell by 0.1% in August. The decline reflects a tightening CPI path, which markets will closely watch as the NBP approaches its target range.
