A new poll indicates that only four parties would enter the Polish parliament, with the Confederation seeing significant losses.
New Poll Results
A recent SW Research study for Vortalna Polska asked participants which party they would vote for in parliamentary elections held this Sunday. 29% of respondents indicated support for Law and Justice (1.6 percentage point increase compared to the previous poll), 27.1% expressed support for Civil Coalition (a 1 percentage point decrease), and 13.2% for Confederation (4.1 percentage point decrease).
Sejm Seat Distribution
According to these results, Law and Justice would receive 193 seats, the Civil Coalition 165 seats, Confederation 73 seats, and the Left-wing party 29 seats. This would signify a majority for the Law and Justice Party if joined by the Confederation, resulting in 266 seats combined. The Civil Coalition and Left-wing party would only accumulate 194 seats in total.
Confederation’s Decline
Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk of Virtualna Polska attributed the Confederation’s decline to the tendency of younger voters to change their political preferences, drawing parallels to the Phenomena of Janusz Korwin-Mikke. He also noted that the party acted as a universal protest organization, which is difficult to maintain over a longer period.
