British intelligence officer Philip Ingram warns that Russia could seize control of the Suwałki Gap, which NATO officials consider a strategic Achilles’ heel.
Russian Military Activity Heightens
Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer, believes Vladimir Putin might attempt to capture the Suwałki Gap. He cites increased Russian military presence in Kaliningrad and Belarus, as well as ongoing large-scale military exercises and untypical troop movements.
Potential Implications for the Baltics
According to Ingram, acquiring the Suwałki Gap would effectively cut off the Baltic states from their NATO allies, much like the build-up before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Strategic Importance of the Suwałki Gap
The Suwałki Gap is a strategic point along the eastern flank of NATO. It’s a narrow area located between Poland, Lithuania, and Russia, encompassing the region around Suwałki, Augustów, and Sejny. Military analysts often describe it as the “most combustible point in Europe” and NATO’s “Achilles’ heel.” The area plays a crucial role in regional geopolitics.
Consequences of a Potential Russian Incursion
Theoretically, a Russian invasion of the Suwałki Gap would give Russia land connections between Belarus and its Kaliningrad exclave. Simultaneously, it would cut off the three Baltic states from any land access to their NATO partners, potentially complicating their support and defense.
