Konrad Muzyka, an analyst specializing in Russian and Belarusian military forces, discusses the potential for war in Poland and the surrounding region.
Muzyka suggests that the likelihood of war depends more on the situation in the Western world than on Russia’s capabilities. He emphasizes that as long as Western European countries remain engaged in supporting Ukraine, Poland can feel relatively secure.
The expert points out that for a war to break out, several conditions would need to be met, such as NATO losing its credibility in deterring Russia, which could happen if the US were to significantly reduce its military presence in Europe or withdraw from NATO altogether.
Muzyka notes that Russia cannot afford to fight two wars simultaneously, so the conflict in Ukraine must be resolved in some way before Russia could consider another military campaign. He also mentions that the Baltic states being part of NATO makes an attack on them by Russia highly unlikely.
Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have had a significant impact, causing problems with gasoline availability in 20 regions and affecting diesel production, which is crucial for the Russian economy.
Muzyka believes it will take Russia about a decade to rebuild its military to pre-invasion levels. He also notes that while Russia can quickly produce simple, mass-produced unmanned systems, it struggles with more complex and expensive military equipment.
The analyst criticizes Poland for focusing too much on acquiring advanced but expensive military technology, such as the F-35, while neglecting the development of capabilities to counter simple, mass-produced drones and unmanned systems.
Despite the challenges, Muzyka remains optimistic about the immediate future, citing the quick and coordinated response of NATO allies when Russian drones recently entered Polish airspace.
