Russia has been building strategic reserves of new recruits since July 2025, sparking concerns from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that Moscow may be preparing for a larger conflict with NATO.
Recruitment Efforts
According to sources from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, Russia has been creating a strategic reserve of new recruits since July 2025.
An internal Russian source reported that around 292,000 individuals signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense from January 2025 to September 15, averaging about 7,900 recruits per week or 31,600 per month.
Conflict Preparations
The ISW suggests that Russia’s military command may have assessed that it can afford to create a strategic reserve after its losses on the front lines began to decrease in the summer of 2025.
The think tank believes that Russia may be preparing for a larger conflict with NATO countries, citing the expansion of patriotic-military programs aimed at recruiting Russian youth into the military in the coming years.
NATO Air Defense Testing
Analysts also noted that Russia continues to test the air defense limits of NATO over the Baltic Sea, frequently violating the airspace of NATO member states.
Recent incidents include 19 Russian drones entering Polish airspace on September 9-10 and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft, an Il-20M, being intercepted by German Eurofighter jets over the Baltic Sea.
