German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warns that Russia may be ready for war by 2029, citing NATO’s Joint Threat Assessment and intelligence reports.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated in the Bundestag on June 5, 2024, that Russia may be ready for war by 2029. He emphasized the need for preparedness and deterrence to prevent the worst-case scenario. This assessment is based on the NATO Joint Threat Assessment from 2023, which analyzed Russia’s military capabilities, economic situation, and losses in the war.
The NATO Joint Threat Assessment was developed by a working group comprising representatives from several NATO countries, particularly those with reconnaissance satellites. The analysis considered not only publicly available data but also intelligence findings, including satellite images. According to the assessment, Russia is likely to be capable of waging war with NATO within the next three to five years.
The German Ministry of Defense has stated that it relies on national and international intelligence information from various sources, including the military and open sources. However, due to military security reasons, no further information can be provided. The ministry has also noted that the situation and threat analysis are constantly updated and improved.
Russia is rapidly rearming and expanding its military capabilities, with a focus on the western regions bordering Finland and the Baltic states. The country is also modernizing its military bases and infrastructure, including those in Belarus, where Russia plans to deploy additional nuclear devices.
Other analytical centers, such as the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), estimate that NATO countries have only five to nine years to prepare militarily for a potential Russian attack. The DGAP report emphasizes that effective prevention of another war in Europe can only be achieved within a limited timeframe.
