Aging populations worldwide will drive a 61% rise in cancer cases and a 75% increase in deaths by 2050, warns a new study.
Global Cancer Burden Set to Surge
Aging societies globally will significantly contribute to a rise in new cancer cases and related deaths. A global analysis published in “The Lancet” on September 25, 2025, predicts that cancer cases will increase by 61%—from 18.5 million to 30.5 million—by 2050. Deaths from cancer are expected to rise by 75%, from 10.4 million to 18.6 million. Over half of new cases and two-thirds of deaths will occur in middle- and low-income countries.
Population Growth and Aging Key Factors
An international team of researchers led by Lisa Force from the University of Washington in Seattle notes that the rise in new cancer cases is primarily due to population growth and aging. Adjusting for standard age structures, the annual cancer incidence rate will drop by 5.7% between 2024 and 2050.
Historical Trends and Challenges
Between 1990 and 2023, annual new cancer cases doubled, and deaths increased by 75%—despite advances in prevention, early detection, and treatment. In high-income countries, age-adjusted cancer mortality rates declined, while they rose in middle- and low-income nations.
Preventable Risk Factors
The study analyzed global data on 47 types of cancer. In 2023, breast cancer was the most diagnosed, followed by lung, colorectal, prostate, and stomach cancers. The leading causes of cancer deaths were lung, colorectal, stomach, breast, and esophageal cancers. About 42% of cancer deaths in 2023 were linked to preventable risk factors, with smoking being the largest contributor. Diabetes and unhealthy diets also contribute to cancer development.
Germany’s Cancer Trends
In Germany, the most common causes of cancer deaths are lung, colorectal, breast, pancreatic, and prostate cancers. Between 1990 and 2023, age-adjusted cancer incidence rose by 3.3%, but mortality rates fell by nearly a quarter (24.9%).
Urgent Call for Action
Cancer remains a major global health issue, with its impact expected to grow in the coming years. Poorer nations with underdeveloped healthcare systems will be most affected. Lisa Force emphasizes that policymakers must prioritize cancer control in international health policies.
