A new poll by United Surveys shows Civic Platform and Law & Justice losing support, while Poland’s Confederation could tip the balance in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Which parties would enter the Sejm?
United Surveys conducted a poll for Wirtualna Polska from 26‑28 September with 1,000 respondents, using CATI and CAWI methods. Civic Platform received 30 % of the vote, a decline of 2.3 pp from the previous survey. Law & Justice followed at 28.5 %, down 2.2 pp.
Confederation rose to 14.7 %, up 0.9 pp, while the Left gained 7.0 % (+0.2 pp). Polish Crown Confederation dropped to 4.1 % (−0.4 pp), Together climbed to 2.2 % (+1 pp), and Polska 2050 reached 2.0 % (+1 pp). Six point eight percent of respondents said they were unsure, an increase of 0.9 pp.
Seat Distribution
If the poll results translated into parliamentary seats, Civic Platform would obtain the most at 179, followed by Law & Justice with 169. Confederation would secure 80 seats, and the Left would get 31.
A coalition between Law & Justice and Confederation would grant the pair 249 seats, giving them a majority well above the 231‑seat threshold. Conversely, a partnership of Civic Platform and the Left would produce only 210 seats, insufficient for a government. Thus Confederation is the pivotal party that could deliver a majority to one side.
Small Shifts Among Voters
Recall the poll from the end of July conducted by IBR iS for “Rzeczpospolitej”. Civic Platform was projected at 30.1 % support, Law & Justice at 28.7 % if elections were held on the first Sunday in August. Confederation was third at 14.6 %, while the Left attracted 7.1 %.
Below the electoral threshold, Polish Crown Confederation was expected to gain 4.6 %, the Polish People’s Party 3.6 %, and Together 3.1 %. Polska 2050 was projected at 2.8 %. Other parties were forecast at 1.1 %. The survey involved 1,067 respondents, with 4.3 % not participating.
