Polish scholar Rafal Chwedoruk says the political project Poland 2050 is already on the brink of collapse, comparing it to other leader‑centric parties that have faded.
Leadership‑Centric Parties Are Volatile
Rafal Chwedoruk, professor at the University of Warsaw, argues that parties built around a single leader, such as Poland 2050, survive only as long as that leader retains political strength. When that strength falters, the party disappears. He cites examples like Suverenna Polska, Ziobry’s, and other formations led by Kukiz, Palikot, and Petru.
Election Results Show Declining Momentum
Poland 2050 has hovered around the electoral threshold for weeks, sometimes dipping below, and its October 30 IBRiS poll gave it a single percent of support. In the 2020 presidential race, Hołownia captured almost 14 %, placing third. The 2023 parliamentary coalition of the Third Way and the Ludiwci gained just over 13 %, and the same coalition secured 12.3 % in local elections. In the European Parliament election, the Hołownia‑Kosiniak‑Kamysz list attained only 7 %, falling to 5 % in the latest poll.
Hołownia to Step Down as Sejm Marshal in November
Hołownia announced on Monday that he would take a post as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and had previously declined to run for party leader. He will cease to be Sejm Marshal in November, after which the party will nominate him as deputy marshal. His chances of securing a significant UN post are uncertain, he said.
A Catastrophe Was Expected
Chwedoruk notes that Poland 2050 lacked strategic policy distinctions from the Civic Platform and positioned itself both as a liberal challenger and a conciliator toward the right. The party failed to establish a liberal‑conservative space in Polish politics and was unable to attract right‑wing voters, leading supporters to leave when the party appeared to court the right. He predicts that the outcome will resemble a political catastrophe.
Fragmentation Signals Likely Absorption by PO
The party’s fragmentation is evident in its abstention from the Central Communal Portal bill, where 19 out of 31 members, including the leader, voted against, and 12 abstained. Chwedoruk believes that a sizable segment of Poland 2050 politicians will gravitate toward the Civic Platform, forming the largest subgroup, while some may join left or right‑wing parties. He doubts the faction can resurrect itself.
Future Outlook: Hołownia and Poland 2050
In early 2025, Poland 2050 will open a leadership contest, with candidates including Katarzyna Pełczyńska‑Nałęcz, Paulina Hennig‑Kloska, Paweł Śliz, Michał Kobosko, and Ryszard Petru who will launch his own candidacy. Petru writes on X that he believes the party can regain trust from its 2023 supporters.
