American analyst Michael Kofman says Russia has begun testing the United States and NATO, but a war remains unlikely, although the risk has risen since the Ukraine invasion.
Likelihood of Conflict
Michael Kofman argues that war is improbable, noting that military incidents rarely spark wars; wars arise from political objectives rather than accidental shoot‑downs.
NATO’s Deterrence and Russia’s Calculus
He doubts that Russian leadership seeks open war with NATO, which he sees capable of defeating Russia both conventionally and with nuclear deterrence. Kofman stresses that demonstrating deterrent readiness is vital to prevent war.
Russia’s Confrontation Strategy
According to Kofman, Moscow is not aimed at immediate confrontation with NATO and will likely wait until the outcome of the Russia‑Ukraine conflict clarifies its position. The state’s security choices, he notes, hinge on how that war resolves.
Rebuilding Russia’s Military
Debate focuses on the timing of Russia’s full combat capability. Analysts argue 5‑7 years for large‑scale operations, while limited actions such as in the Baltic states could return sooner, depending on Russia’s objectives.
European Defense Outlook
Kofman warns that European states must sustain U.S. engagement while gradually increasing their own defense capacity and reducing dependence on Washington. He urges Europe to invest adequately so it can operate independently of American leadership.
