Russia is incrementally expanding its control along the Donbas frontline, now occupying Kupiansk’s industrial outskirts and making modest gains near Siewiersk, amid a sluggish yet sustained Ukrainian defense.
Situation in Kupiansk
Two former rear‑area logistics hubs, Kupiansk and Siewiersk, lie on the Donbas northwestern flank, adjacent to the Kharkiv region. Historically quiet, the area has seen rapid change over the past two months.
Russian forces are making small, gradual advances, controlling far‑north industrial suburbs and pushing into the city center. These incursions strain Ukrainian logistics, as key supply routes fall within drone‑sight distance. A loss of Kupiansk would also sever Ukraine’s eastern foothold across the Oskil River.
Situation in Siewiersk
Approximately 100 km south of Kupiansk, Siewiersk’s front remains relatively stable, with Russian forces only making limited forward moves. Key victories have emerged near Siewiersk, especially after capturing the adjacent smaller town of Lymany across the Donets River.
Despite earlier attempts to push the front line 10–15 km eastward, current Russian small assault groups fail to secure lasting control. Ukrainian forces regularly eliminate these detachments, keeping the line largely intact.
Priority Focus: Donetsk Region
The South remains the most strained sector, stretching from Velexiwa until Konstantynivka, covering much of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian forces report the bulk of Russian attacks here, with over 700 offensives recorded in September versus fewer outside.
Russian command continues to concentrate on re‑organizing fresh forces for a heavy strike between Pokrovsko and Konstantynivka, employing thousands of armored vehicles rarely seen in the front for two years. Current offensive momentum is modest, advancing about half a kilometer per week in this corridor.
No Breakthroughs on the Front
Across the wider front, progress remains minimal. In August the situation stabilized, and sector battles near Kharkiv and Sumy lost intensity. Both sides now treat these fronts as lower priority.
Ukrainian sources claim they lost 259 km² in September, while analysts estimate up to 398 km², still lower than August’s 464 km². Russian reports state more territory was captured, yet no decisive advantage has materialised.
The conflict continues at a steady tempo: Russian forces keep the initiative and pressure the Ukrainian line with minor, small‑scale attacks—usually 2‑person units aiming to slip past detection, survive drone strikes, and secure advantageous positions under artillery cover.
