Russia’s threats of extreme retaliation have failed to deter Western support for Kyiv, prompting Washington to signal expanded approval of long‑range strikes and leaving NATO emboldened to counter.
Russia’s Deterrence Strategy Fails to Build Credibility
Russian officials have long used aggressive rhetoric to discourage NATO aid to Ukraine, yet these threats have not changed Western policy. The Kremlin’s repeated warnings that supplying combat arms could trigger retaliation with “more powerful weapons” have lost persuasive power in the West.
As Russia’s real military capacity has become apparent—especially after the 2022 setbacks and subsequent operational limitations—its deterrence narrative increasingly appears hollow.
Western Military Support for Ukraine Sticks Despite Russian Threats
Despite Kremlin proclamations, the United States and European allies have continued to deliver armored vehicles, air‑defence systems and ballistic missiles to Ukraine. 2023 deliveries to Sevastopol and 2024 support for operations on Russian soil demonstrate this steadfastness.
Russian claims that these supplies would provoke greater retaliation have had no effect, and the West has maintained that deterrence is not achieved through threats but through credible defensive posture.
Washington Signals Readiness to Enable Ukraine’s Hard‑Target Attacks
After a decade of restrictive policy, the Biden administration lifted most limitations on Western support for Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure. Officials openly discussed the possibility of coordinating long‑range attacks via Europe.
Reports indicate the U.S. has begun to provide intelligence assistance for planning such operations, signalling a shift toward greater operational flexibility.
Russia Escalates with Small‑Scale Attacks, Increasing Pressure
Compensating for strategic inferiority, Russia has intensified the use of drones, sabotage and limited incursions aimed at NATO territory and infrastructure.
These actions serve to apply pressure below the threshold of open conflict, yet they also create new risks through indiscriminate impacts and potential escalation.
The Escalation Ladder Continues to Rise, Raising Unknown Risks
Each new Russian drone incursion or sabotage attempt heightens uncertainty for Europe. While the likelihood of Russian conventional attacks on Warsaw or other capitals remains low, the specter of hybrid warfare keeps the alliance on high alert.
The continuing cycle of escalation, despite diplomatic arguments, underscores the need for vigilance and a measured response.
