Poland’s State Institute of Meteorology has warned that the anticipated October ‘golden autumn’ may still see temperatures 1–2 °C below normal by mid‑October.
Long‑term October forecast
Poland’s State Institute of Meteorology (IMGW) issued an October forecast for a “golden autumn” with above‑normal temperatures. However, the most recent long‑term outlook indicates that the temperature in the coming days and weeks will not exceed normal values and may even be 1–2 °C lower.
Historical data for 1991‑2020 show an average October temperature of 9.4 °C nationwide. Based on European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts data, the forecast predicts that by the end of this week (10 12 October) the average temperature will be 12‑14 °C, falling to 10‑12 °C next week, and 9‑11 °C the following fortnight. Above‑norm rainfall is expected during that period.
Temperature trend for the coming weeks
The forecast outlines a gradual cooling trend: 12‑14 °C up to 12 October, 10‑12 °C for the next week, and 9‑11 °C a month later. Average temperatures are projected to stay below normal throughout October.
Early week: cool, rainy, possible snow gusts
On 6 October, IMGW synoptists predict extensive cloud cover with a central-northern wind bringing clear spells. Heavy rain is expected from the Baltic Coast through the Łódź Region, with totals up to 10‑15 mm. In the Sudetes, rain‑sleet and in the Carpathians, snow are forecast; light snow gusts are possible.
The forecasted snow cover increase in the Tatra Mountains ranges from 3 cm to 5 cm. Maximum temperatures will be 10‑13 °C across most areas, 14 °C along the east and over the sea, while the foothills of the Carpathians will enjoy cooler 8 °C temperatures. Winds will be weak to moderate, with a stronger, gusty northern wind of up to 85 km/h initially.
Hydrological drought in Poland
On Monday, the Meteorological and Water Management Institute confirmed that hydrological drought continues in many parts of Poland. The warning covers northern Silesian, Subcarpathian, Podlaskie, eastern Masovian, and western Pomeranian and Greater Poland regions. Forest fire risk remains high in some areas.
