China is amassing forces for a possible invasion of Taiwan, yet experts question whether Beijing truly intends to launch such a risky operation.
Is Beijing Ready for a High‑Risk Operation?
The central issue is whether the Chinese government is prepared to undertake the enormous risk of a Taiwan invasion. Such an operation would rival the scale of the Allied invasions of World War II and could trigger a regional war. The possibility of escalation and wider conflict cannot be ruled out.
Russia‑Style Airborne Assault Tactics
China has been studying Russian airborne assault concepts, and has even produced specialized light armored vehicles that can be transported by cargo aircraft and deployed with paratroops. This approach echoes Soviet practices that aimed to give airborne units greater firepower and mobility.
RUSI Reveals Russia‑China Military Deal
In April, the British think‑tank RUSI published findings based on documents stolen from Russian state databases. The reports describe a secret 2023 agreement in which Russia supplied China with advanced airborne warfare equipment and training.
800‑Page Analysis of Airborne Equipment Sales
Experts examined about 800 pages of contractual documents that outline the sale of know‑how and a complete set of gear for a mechanized airborne battalion. The kit includes dozens of lightly armored cars designed for air transport and drop, as well as artillery and armored personnel carriers.
Russia Maintains Specialized Vehicle Production
Russia continues to develop and produce the specialized airborne vehicles that China’s plans call for. The package covers 37 BMD‑4M assault vehicles, 11 Spurt‑SDM1 howitzers, 11 BTR‑MDM Rakushka armored carriers, and accompanying command, reconnaissance, and drone units, all equipped with Chinese communication systems.
Motivation Behind the Deal Likely Taiwan Invasion
The agreement’s stated purpose is not specified, but analysts infer that it aims to expand China’s invasion potential against Taiwan. While China already has airborne forces, its operational experience is limited, and Russian expertise could fill that gap.
Simulation Study Suggests Limited Conflict Preferred
A war‑game simulation held at Syracuse University, published by “War on the Rocks,” had participants acting as China. The core finding was that a full‑scale invasion would carry too much risk; instead, limited use of force and economic pressure could force Taiwan to negotiate without provoking U.S. involvement.
