The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia is moving into a ‘Phase 0’ of long‑term preparations for a potential conflict with NATO, indicating intensified disinformation and security operations across Europe.
ISW on Russia’s Actions
The Institute for the Study of War says Russia has accelerated what it calls “Phase 0,” a stage of informational‑psychological preparation intended to lay the groundwork for a future war with NATO. While the Institute does not see evidence that the Kremlin has yet decided to start a conflict, it notes that Russia conducts long‑term activities that could serve as war preparations, such as reorganizing the military districts along its western border and expanding bases near Finland. The report stresses the absence of any signals indicating an imminent, inescapable clash with NATO.
Moscow Has Clearly Intensified Its Actions
The report highlights a Russian Foreign Intelligence Service communiqué claiming the United Kingdom allegedly plans a false‑flag provocation involving a Russian attack on a European vessel. This follows a pattern of false‑flag allegations against Poland, Moldova and Serbia, with the SWR increasingly publishing such claims in a coordinated fashion. Russian services also report that Ukraine plans a false‑flag provocation against Poland.
According to the think‑tank, Russia’s preparations fall under Phase 0, comprising both overt and covert operations—ranging from sabotage and arson to GPS interference. Since autumn 2025, Moscow has intensified drone incursions into NATO airspace, a pattern that the Institute sees as a clear shift into the first stage of preparations for a possible future war with NATO.
Kremlin’s Goal
The Kremlin aims to sow fear across Europe to reduce support for Ukraine and halt defensive measures on the continent. By cultivating a climate of escalation dread, Moscow seeks to paralyze European decision‑making as part of a broader “reflective control” campaign. The Kremlin also uses false narratives to frame the West as an aggressor, thereby preparing its society for a potential future confrontation with NATO.
“Putin Could Start a World War”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that if Russia mobilizes en masse, Putin could launch a large‑scale attack on Europe and trigger a world war. He said the Kremlin has not yet started fighting in Ukraine but fears that a ceasefire would give Putin the chance to resume large‑scale operations. Zelenskyy further added that the army’s main objective is to capture Pogruk in Donbas and that Russian forces lose up to 200 soldiers daily—implying that if the east of Ukraine is taken, millions of troops could be lost.
