Investigations have been launched after a spike in betting odds for Maria Corina Machado suggests that news of her Nobel Peace Prize win may have leaked before the official announcement.
Possible Pre‑Announcement Leak
Bloomberg reports that the Norwegian Nobel Committee is probing whether information about the Nobel Peace Prize recipient leaked before the laureate’s name was publicly announced.
The investigation hinges on a sudden rise in bets on Maria Corina Machado observed on the Polymarket platform shortly after midnight Norwegian time, from Thursday to Friday.
Betting Market Reacts Rapidly
Forbes notes that within an hour and a half, the odds for Machado to win increased from 3.75 to nearly 73 %.
According to Finansavisen, an individual won $65,000 by betting on Machado at the heightened odds.
Experts Warn of Information Theft
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, told Bloomberg, “It looks like we have become victims of a criminal who wants to profit from our information.”
Harvard professor and former Obama administration economic adviser Jason Furman echoed the concern, saying, “One day a student asked me about the prevalence of trading confidential information on forecast markets. Now I have an answer.”
Maria Corina Machado Awarded Peace Prize
Maria Corina Machado was honored with the Nobel Peace Prize for her tireless work advocating for the democratic rights of the Venezuelan people and for her efforts to bring a just, peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.
