Russian President Vladimir Putin, on his birthday, convened with top military commanders and state officials to review Ukraine war progress and affirm no plans to end the conflict.
Putin Meets Top Military and State Officials on His Birthday
On 7 October, the day of Putin’s birthday, he gathered in St. Petersburg with Russia’s top commanders, including Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Gerasimov reported progress on “almost all fronts”, to which Putin replied that Ukrainian Armed Forces were retreating across the entire front line. According to Russian officials, the reality is far more complex, with heavy losses and local successes on both sides but no breakthrough.
Subsequent Kremlin statements reaffirmed Moscow’s unwillingness to concede. A day later, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Rybakov said the impulse to settle the conflict that emerged after the Trump–Putin Alaska meeting had faded. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed a weakening dialogue with the United States. These declarations point to an increasingly protracted war.
Putin Before the Election: Pause in War or Further Escalation
Putin faces a strategic dilemma: freeze the war to reorganise and rearm or continue the current operation. Viktor Szyliczak notes that Russia is running parallel processes of attrition war and attempting fundamental reform of its armed forces.
Szyliczak comments that the hefty sums involved may exceed Russia’s available finances. Public data may not reflect reality, so only indirect indicators are available, insufficient to see where the state budget goes.
Russia’s Budget Strains amid War
Putin must decide whether to temporarily pause military actions and focus on rebuilding the army or continue escalation amid rising costs. Szyliczak says Russia cannot afford simultaneous war and expensive modernization. The armament program, originally planned to finish by 2030, is now projected for 2037, with most tasks still due by the decade’s end.
Putin Decides: War Will Continue
Military expert Yuri Fedorov reports that during the 7 October meeting, Putin clearly indicated no intention to end the war. He stated all objectives of the so‑called special operation must be met: total loss of Ukrainian sovereignty, transformation into a Russian protectorate, disarmament, and prevention of any military‑political alliances with the West.
Fedorov notes that the decision to continue the war was not obvious; internal debates were held about seeking compromise or continuing actions. Eventually, Putin chose continuation, at least until mid‑next year, hoping for military success.
Ukrainian Expert: War Nears Total Destruction
Ukrainian analyst Volodymyr Horbacz says the conflict is moving from attritional war to total war. Both sides are near their limits of endurance, with Russia increasingly attacking civilian targets and Ukraine retaliating against Russian refineries and logistics.
Horbacz stresses that Ukraine must withstand the blows and respond with strikes on targets that enable the Kremlin to continue the war.
Tomahawks Could Change the War
Ukrainian expert Dmytro Zmajlo explains that even a handful of American Tomahawk missiles could strike deep inside Russia within 1700–1800 km, in coordination with the United States. More than 1,600 strategic Russian targets lie within range.
Russia’s air defence is ill‑prepared for such strikes; the Tomahawk’s GPS navigation and low‑altitude flight would bypass radar, potentially altering the force balance considerably.
If used, the narrative of the war would shift, prompting the Kremlin to intensify threats, propaganda, and terrorism. However, Russia’s real capacity for nuclear escalation remains limited, largely constrained by China’s stance. Russia’s defence industry is already operating at full capacity and the army, while desperate, remains unprepared for significant success.
