The International War Studies Institute warns that Russia’s intensified tank production and drone assaults signal a new, long‑term threat to NATO, as the Kremlin gears up for operations beyond the Ukraine war.
Russia’s Accelerated Tank Production Plan
ISW’s latest report cites documents from Uralwagonzawod (UVZ) showing the factory will reach peak production of T‑90 and T‑90M2 tanks in 2027, with more than 1,000 tanks scheduled for manufacture between 2027 and 2029.
The Institute interprets the company’s modernization goals as sufficient to fully replenish Russia’s tank fleet for a future large‑scale war, viewing the industry’s long‑term actions as aimed at posing a chronic threat to NATO.
Long‑Term Threat to NATO
The study argues that Russia’s plan to ramp up T‑90 output and rebuild pre‑war reserve tanks signals an intention to conduct military operations beyond the current Ukraine conflict, framing it as a “Phase Zero” attack against Europe.
Experts warn that tanks will remain a critical battlefield weapon and Russia could present a severe NATO threat well before 2036 without needing to rebuild its fleet, seeking to forge a powerful “armored fist.”
Drone Raids on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure
On the night of 11–12 October, Russian drones and a missile strike damaged Ukrainian power infrastructure, with 118 long‑range drones of various types and one missile used, according to Kyiv.
The Ministry of Defence reported damage in the Donetsk, Odesa, and Chernihiv regions, with the worst power shortages in the forward part of Donbas. A daylight raid later hit substations near Kyiv, injuring two DTEK employees and highlighting ongoing Russian attacks on the nation’s power grid.
