Polish coalition leaders Tusk and Hołowni mark the second anniversary of their 2023 electoral victory, discussing future governance plans amid looming policy clashes and impending elections.
Tusk and Hołowni on Their Own
On Wednesday marks the second anniversary of the parliamentary elections held on 15 October 2023, which proved victorious for the current coalition and allowed the ruling party, PiS, to be pushed out of power after eight years. There will be no joint anniversary celebration; the individual parties will rather honor the occasion within their own circles for the second year. “Why don’t we organize something together?” says a PSL politician, “Because that’s probably better; we can share the tasks, each will talk about what matters most to them. Through this, the message will be sharper and may reach a larger audience.”
The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence, Władysław Kosiniak‑Kamysz, is scheduled to meet the media on Wednesday, while the Prime Minister will hold an open forum with residents of Piotrków Trybunalski. “We are halfway through the term, so Donald will very likely summarize the past two years and outline a vision for what lies ahead until the elections,” emphasizes the PO politician from Łódź.
Polish 2050’s Sejm Conference and Internal Disputes
Polish 2050 will also organize its own conference in the Sejm on Wednesday. All members of the government who come from its party will accompany President of the Sejm, Szymon Hołowni. They will speak about the government’s successes in their areas, though it is not ruled out that they will also remind that Polish 2050 expects the vice‑premier position for Katarzyna Pełczyńska‑Nałęcz.
Internal disputes remain unresolved. Hołowni recently suggested that the concession of the vice‑premier post would be contingent on his stepping down as Sejm Marshal, so that, according to the coalition agreement, the seat would be taken by the leader of the New Left, Włodzimierz Czarzasty. The Civic Coalition deemed these words blackmail against the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister dismissed them diplomatically last week: “I will make decisions about the government’s composition in due time.”
Civic Coalition politicians expect that Tusk will not rush into changes in the Council of Ministers. “I would wait until January until Hołowni’s future is clarified, and whether he will indeed resign from leading the party before taking his place,” says a PO parliamentarian. “I do not rule out that the Prime Minister will ultimately wave a finger at this all and Pełczyńska‑Nałęcz will receive the position, although it would be better if Hołowni first discussed this with him and then later issued statements to the media,” we hear in Donald Tusk’s circle.
Coalition’s Fragility and Survival
Our interviewees consistently point out that the coalition is difficult, because not only is it multi‑entity, it also attempts to combine programs and demands that often exclude each other. The Left supports marital equality and broad liberalization of abortion rights; PSL only reluctantly agrees to a heavily cut version of the partnership law (without the name “partnership law”) and a return to the legal status before the Constitutional Tribunal’s 2020 ruling, which tightened abortion law. The Civic Coalition, Blok and Polish 2050 favor lowering health insurance premiums for entrepreneurs; the Left opposes. Similarly for housing programs – PSL and KO wanted to continue subsidies for mortgage loans (the “zero‑percent credit” promised in KO’s 100 specific points), but under the pressure of the Left and Polish 2050 the project was ultimately abandoned in favor of supporting community and social housing.
The members of Włodzimierz Czarzasty’s formation still remember the spring losing the law that aimed to change the rules of health insurance calculation, with the participation of President Andrzej Duda, and that Szymon Hołowni was one of those who supported the project of a new head of state, assuming a return to the implementation of CPK according to PiS plans. “If not the hard hand and charisma of the premier, everything would have already disintegrated,” convinces a PO‑associated MP.
Nonetheless, as can be heard across the entire ruling camp, the coalition will survive, because there is no alternative for it, and nobody seriously considers changing the front. “I speak with Polish 2050 politicians and have never heard from any of them that they would want to support PiS,” says a PO senator. “Besides, we have a range of achievements: we are increasing security in the country, improving relations with the European Union, or even stopping the dismantling of rule of law in Poland,” says another interviewer from the Civic Coalition. “Security is key for us: we spend huge amounts, 200 billion PLN on defense, and another 200 billion from the SAFE program. But this security also concerns other dimensions, like health. We have the largest spending on health care in history (242 billion PLN), we have social security, and we have not dismantled 800+; we introduced other programs,” says vice‑minister of KPRM Jakub Stefaniak.
Early Electoral Scenarios and Poll Forecasts
The coalition parties, besides summarizing the midpoint of the term, are slowly starting to think about what will be in two years. “It all came together very quickly, we just won the parliamentary elections, and by the middle of next year the campaign for the next one will probably start,” admits a Left politician. And similarly, as others in the ruling camp, they begin to outline scenarios for 2027. “It would be best to start again with Together, but whether this will be possible will be shown by time. The test will be the vote on choosing Czarzasty as Sejm Marshal. If Together votes against, that will be a clear signal of their intentions,” evaluates our interviewee.
For now, PSL and Polish 2050, despite fatal polling, speak of independent candidacy for parliamentary elections. In the best situation is Civic Coalition, which some polls give it the leadership position (according to the latest IBRiS survey for Onet, KO enjoys 30.5% support, PiS 27.3%). Politicians from Donald Tusk’s party nevertheless realize that even a potential electoral victory would likely mean loss of power, because the Confederation is much closer to PiS than to KO. “If Mentor with Kaczyński agree on the Senate pact, that will be a disaster. We must as a whole governing camp work to win in two years and keep power without looking to the Confederation,” says a PO politician.
