On October 10, seven armed men appeared on an Estonian road crossing Russian territory, prompting a temporary road closure and renewed discussion in Estonia about border security and potential conflicts with Russia.
Historical Fear of Russian Aggression
Expert Bartosz Chmielewski said Estonians have lived with the knowledge that Russia could target them first if it escalates aggression. From the 1991 independence onward, Estonia remains wary of Russia’s imperial ambitions, a perspective that shapes its approach to potential war since 2014.
October 10 Border Breach on the Saatse Road
Seven armed men with no visible markings appeared on a short Estonian road that cuts through Russian territory near the town of Saatse on October 10. They resembled the “green men” seen in Crimea and Donbas in 2014. Estonian border guards closed the road segment to avoid further incidents, describing the event as atypical for the area, where such a large armed group is rarely seen.
The “Saatse Gap” and Proposed Bypass
The incident took place at the “Saatse foot,” a 1.5‑km protrusion of Russian territory into Estonia where the road level cuts across the border. Historically part of the Soviet border, Estonians can pass through it without customs checks as long as they do not stop. Tsahkna, the Estonian foreign minister, dismissed Western reactions as exaggerated, noting nothing extraordinary occurs at the border. Chmielewski highlighted that Estonia now plans to build a new bypass so traffic does not cross Russian soil, but environmental assessments of protected flora have stalled the project.
Unratified Border Treaty and Other Disputed Areas
Estonia and Russia still have no ratified border treaty. The first attempt was in 2005, and a second in 2014, both failing mainly over historical issues such as references to the 1920 Treaty of Tartu or disputes about Soviet occupation. Because of this, most borders are governed by de‑facto internal republic lines. Similar disputes exist elsewhere, like the Vaindloo island in the Gulf of Finland, where Russia claims overlapping airspace, leading to incidents such as a MiG‑31 breach last month.
Legacy of Incidents and Current Preparedness
More serious incidents have occurred in the past, notably in 2014 when FSB agents crossed the Narva border and abducted Estonian intelligence officer Eston Kohver, who was later returned in a prisoner swap. Russian practices at Narva crossings include frequent obstructions causing delays, and airspace violations are increasingly regular. In response, Estonia has increased defense spending and announced the Baltic Shield joint defense project, though it remains largely a political statement rather than an operational reality. Public discourse in Estonia tends to focus on preparedness rather than overt fear, reflecting years of lived awareness of potential conflict with Russia.
