Meteorologists forecast sporadic snow and frost in December‑January, but year‑long temperatures will stay within normal limits, averting a prolonged sub‑zero spell.
Expected Snowfall and Frost
The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management predicts the 2025/26 winter will resemble earlier seasons, with snow and frost mainly appearing in December and January. However, temperatures throughout the season are expected to remain within normal ranges, so a classic long‑lasting winter is unlikely. Dr. Agnieszka Krzyżewska, climatologist at UMCS in Lublin, said on Radio ZET, “We can basically forget about a cold winter with temperatures below zero for long periods, though frosts and snow will certainly occur.” Snow may cover the country several times, but prolonged frosts are doubtful. Meteorologists do not rule out brief, intense cold spells, especially in eastern Poland.
Global Weather Drivers
Two atmospheric phenomena could shape the upcoming winter: a weak polar vortex and La Niña. A subdued polar vortex may allow cold Arctic air to flow toward Europe. If the vortex “collapses,” icy air masses could reach Poland, bringing short, intense winter episodes. La Niña, which is currently hindering the development of a stable polar vortex, increases the probability of such weak vortex events, leading to rapid weather shifts—from thaw to sudden frosts and snow.
Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts
Long‑term IMGW forecasts show a warm autumn of 2025, with October and November temperatures above long‑term averages. December is expected near average values, while January 2026 is projected to exceed norms in both temperature and precipitation. For example, in Gdańsk the average January temperature is forecast between –0.7 °C and 1.6 °C; in Koszalin between –0.6 °C and 1.5 °C; and in Szczecin between –0.2 °C and 1.9 °C. Thus, despite occasional frosts, most days will hover around zero or just above.
Climate Change Context
Experts note that the increasing frequency of winter warming is a result of long‑term climate change. According to the Central Statistical Office, the rate of change in temperature, precipitation, and sea level has accelerated over the past 150 years. Both natural factors—such as volcanic eruptions—and human activities, especially fossil‑fuel combustion and deforestation, drive this warming. These processes create the greenhouse effect, making winters shorter and more variable.
