Bolivia’s August presidential runoff is set to return right‑wing power, as former president Evo Morales laments the failure of socialism ahead of the nation’s election.
Surprising Poll Results
In August, first‑round results surprised observers: PDC’s Rodrigo Paz secured 32% of votes, outpacing Alianza Libre’s Jorge Quiroga at 27%, while the MAS candidate, associated with former president Evo Morales, barely exceeded 3%.
Candidate Profiles
Paz, son of former president Jaime Paza Zamora, brings a long political career; his running mate Edman Lara, a former police chief turned TikTok viral sensation, emphasizes moral rhetoric. Quiroga, ex‑president 2001‑02, teams with digital entrepreneur Juan Pablo Velasco, both lacking prior political experience.
Right‑wing Likely to Govern
Analysts predict that the PDC’s centrist‑to‑right stance will maintain control, but the Alianza Libre coalition represents a more overtly right‑leaning grouping and could pose a challenge.
Institutional Weakening and Democratic Paradox
Bolivia faces a gradual erosion of institutions, rule‑of‑law regression, press pressure, and politicised courts, creating a paradox where liberal democracy deteriorates while social participation rises.
Social Media Campaigns and Disinformation
Political marketing now dominates TikTok and Facebook, reaching rural areas previously untouched; misinformation spreads rapidly through algorithmic echo chambers, complicating electoral integrity despite Electoral Tribunal efforts.
Deflation of MAS
MAS, once Bolivia’s dominant party in 2005, 2009, 2014 and 2020 presidential contests, has fractured internally; its 2024 presidential candidate received only 3% in the first round, and parliamentary support dropped to a few percent.
From Economic Boom to Crisis
Between 2006‑14, Bolivia enjoyed more than 4.5% growth, reduced poverty, and integrated indigenous populations; a commodity boom collapse in 2014 and gas depletion led to revenue declines, leaving public spending mismatched to the new reality.
Current Economic Strain
Citizens queuing for fuel, food and essentials; price increases and inflation squeeze wallets, dollar scarcity hampers production and drives smuggling; 90% of diesel and 60% of gasoline are imported.
Proposed Funding Strategies
Quiroga seeks IMF talks to secure resources and regain international trust; Paz rejects further debt, aiming to reallocate existing dollars efficiently without shock measures.
Future Resource Base
Lithium, once dubbed “white gold,” demands large investment costs and offers limited long‑term value; natural gas remains the main economic anchor, yet diversification remains uncertain.
Concluding Thoughts
The population must choose whether to entrust the country to a returning left or new right‑wing administration; balancing short‑term stability with long‑term development will shape Bolivia’s political trajectory.
