A SW Research poll released by Rp.pl surveyed 800 Polish adults on 14‑15 October whether the Tusk‑led coalition would remain in power until the end of its term, and 41.8 % said yes.
Poll on the government’s future
The survey posed the question whether the Koalicja Obywatelska–PSL–Polska 2050–Nowa Lewica government would stay in office until the end of its term. 41.8 % answered “yes,” 37.8 % “no,” and 20.4 % had no opinion.
Methodology
The sample of 800 fully‑eligible adults was selected by random‑quota method and weighted to match the Polish population over 18 on key socio‑demographic variables, as reported by Rp.pl.
Potential scenarios
A fall of the current government could occur if several dozen coalition MPs crossed to the opposition, though that has not happened so far. The PiS caucus holds 188 seats, KO 157, PSL 32, Polska 2050 31, Lewica 21, Konfederacja 16, Razem 5, Wolne Republikany 4, and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 3, with three independents; altogether 241 members form the coalition.
Other scenarios include shortening the Sejm’s term and hastening elections, which would require at least 307 MPs to vote for dismissal, or the resignation of a coalition partner without actively collaborating with PiS or the Confederation and abstaining from a vote of no confidence against the prime minister.
2023 parliamentary election results
In the last election, PiS received 35.38 % of the vote, KO 30.7 %, the Third Path (Polska 2050 and PSL) 14.4 %, Lewica 8.61 %, and Konfederacja 7.16 %. This translated into 194 seats for PiS, 157 for KO, 65 for the Third Path, 26 for Lewica, and 18 for Konfederacja.