French General Fabien Mandon warns that France is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia, urging readiness for a shock in three to four years amid escalating tensions with NATO.
Preparing for a Potential Shock
General Fabien Mandon, chief of the French General Staff, declared that France is actively preparing its armed forces for a possible conflict with Russia. He warned that Moscow could be inclined to continue its war in Europe and that the first objective of the army is to anticipate a shock in the next three to four years. Mandon said such a scenario could be a test, but it might also turn out to be far more brutal.
Russia’s Reorganisation and Hybrid Tests
Mandon noted that the Russian army is currently reorganising its forces and that Moscow’s primary aim is to confront NATO. He also warned that Russia might already be conducting hybrid attacks across Europe as part of its testing phase. The general highlighted that the belief that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was the last attack would be a grave mistake.
European Confidence and Deterrence
He stressed that Europe’s economic, demographic and industrial strengths give it the confidence to withstand Russian pressure. Mandon added that if potential adversaries perceive a determined defence, they will be more inclined to submit; if they think the West is unprepared, the threat would have little practical impact. The AFP has reported that German intelligence believes Russia could enter a direct conflict with NATO as early as 2029.
French Defence Budget Increase
During his briefing to the National Assembly’s defence committee, Mandon outlined France’s new defence budget plan, which would raise spending by 13 percent to 57.1 billion euros in 2026, amounting to 2.2 percent of GDP. He argued that the increase is justified not only by the Russian threat but also by ongoing crises and terrorist menaces in the Middle East. The general summed up the urgency, calling the proposal ‘complete boldness’.
