Recent polling shows the Civic Coalition enjoys strong backing, yet the decision to run together with other opposition groups remains contested amid predictions of a joint list that could surpass the ruling party.
Will a joint list cripple PiS?
Polls suggest a single opposition list could hold more than 46% of votes, with PiS falling to about 29%, according to the All‑Nation Research Group’s latest survey.
Sturdy support for the Civic Coalition
The Civic Coalition recorded a record 38.12% of the vote in the same poll, surpassing the ruling Law and Justice party’s 29.81%. Its base is considered stable and often higher than Port and Justice’s support.
Coalition 15 October parties drop below threshold
While the Civic Coalition thrives, other parties in the Coalition 15 October—New Left, PSL, Polskę 2050, and Razem—received between 1 and 4% each, all below the 5% electoral threshold.
Right‑wing parties outperform the opposition
Confederation dominated the right‑wing bloc with 15.5% of votes, followed by the Confederation – Polish Crown group at 6%. These figures remain well ahead of the opposition parties.
Potential full government coalition list
Under a scenario where every current government party runs together, the joint list could reach 46.73% of support: 28.7% for PiS, 16.54% for Confederation, 5.84% for Confederation – Polish Crown, and 2.19% for Razem.
Past joint lists and future prospects
The Civic Coalition has experience with joint lists, notably the 2019 European Coalition that brought together PO, PSL, and SLD. Senator Krzysztof Kwiatkowski praised a broad coalition, noting the 64 Senate seats it secured in 2019. Other opposition parties, including those led by Donald Tusk, expressed openness to talks, though some remain cautious about merging with the Civic Coalition.
Smaller parties prefer standing alone
Members of smaller groups, such as New Left and the joint party Razem, generally favor independent candidacies. Andrzej Szejna of New Left stressed that while a broad coalition could be advantageous, the group is preparing to run separately.
Government perception and internal dynamics
Intra‑government views diverge over the upper‑handed surge of Civic Coalition support. Some officials attribute it to attacks on the Tusk movement, while others believe the current administration’s actions dilute government appeal. Law and Justice’s own polls show only 29% approval for the cabinet and 32% satisfaction with Prime Minister Tusk’s leadership.
Polish People’s Party and other associations weigh in
Polish People’s Party members claim their support is still significant, despite recent low poll numbers, seeing the likelihood of running independently. The People’s Left side remains skeptical about forming a joint list.
Upcoming political showcase
Over the coming weekend, the Civic Coalition and PiS will lead major events in Katowice, with the Civic Coalition planning a convention aimed at merging into a new party comprising PO, Modern, and Polish Initiative.
