The Doomsday Clock stands at 85 seconds to midnight as the New START treaty expires, ending decades of formal nuclear arms control between the US and Russia.
The Doomsday Clock at its Closest to Midnight
Scientists from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight in January 2026, the closest to doomsday in history. This symbolic representation aims to draw attention to the risk of global catastrophe, with three main identified threats: nuclear escalation, uncontrolled AI development, and biological dangers.
End of an Era for Nuclear Arms Control
On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty expired, marking the end of the last international agreement regulating nuclear arsenals between the United States and Russia, which possess 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. This expiration, following the earlier end of the INF treaty, concludes a significant period in the decades-long effort to prevent weapons proliferation.
From SALT to START: A History of Nuclear Control
Nuclear arms control began during the Cold War in the 1970s with agreements like SALT I and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The most significant achievement was START I in 1991, which reduced strategic arsenals by over 80% compared to Cold War peak levels. New START, signed by Presidents Obama and Medvedev in 2010, limited each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 launchers, with verification mechanisms maintaining trust during crises.
No Formal Limits, Only Political Will
For the first time since 1972, there is no formal agreement limiting US and Russian strategic arsenals. While both remain parties to the NPT, it addresses proliferation rather than arsenal levels. In September 2025, Putin proposed extending New START for one year, a idea Trump supported, and Putin indicated Russia would comply if the US did the same, though formalization remains uncertain.
A New Phase of Nuclear Proliferation
The world is entering a new arms race phase involving not just traditional nuclear powers but potentially others. In Scandinavia, especially Sweden, debates about nuclear deterrence have intensified following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. In Asia, Japan has begun discussing offensive capabilities openly, while South Korean support for its own nuclear weapons grows amid North Korean threats. Similar discussions are emerging in Germany, Poland, and other nations.