Łukasz Pawłowski, head of the All-Poland Research Group, argues that replacing Donald Tusk with Radosław Sikorski won’t save the ruling coalition.
Tusk’s Leadership Under Scrutiny
Łukasz Pawłowski, president of the All-Poland Research Group, stated that replacing Donald Tusk with Radosław Sikorski would make no sense for saving the coalition’s ratings. However, he acknowledged that a change is necessary from the government’s perspective to avoid losing the next elections. While the Civic Coalition could win the elections, Pawłowski noted that they might still lack the majority needed to govern.
The past 30 years have shown that each year in power leads to a decline in popularity for the ruling party. Pawłowski questioned whether replacing Tusk with Sikorski would reverse this negative trend, expressing doubt about Sikorski’s ability to save the government.
Sikorski’s Limitations
Pawłowski argued that Sikorski, being close in age to Tusk, does not represent a generational change. He is deeply embedded in the political establishment and has not demonstrated exceptional political talent. While Sikorski performs well at the UN, such opportunities are rare, and foreign policy is only a small part of a prime minister’s responsibilities. Pawłowski concluded that Sikorski is not the messianic figure needed to save the government.
The Anti-Establishment Shift
Pawłowski emphasized that the recent political shift is not about left or right but about anti-establishment sentiment. Rafał Trzaskowski’s presidential campaign failed because he represented the ruling elite, not addressing the growing inequality that voters care about. Pawłowski noted that Trzaskowski’s defeat was due to his inability to connect with rural and small-town voters, where the majority of the population resides.
Need for a Populist Leader
Pawłowski argued that replacing Tusk with Sikorski would not help the government’s support. He pointed out that Trzaskowski lost because of his weak performance in rural areas, where the majority of voters live. Pawłowski suggested that the government needs a leader with genuine populist appeal, not someone artificially presented as such. He doubted that Sikorski, who owns a palace, could convince voters that life under the Civic Platform would improve.
Desperation After Election Defeat
Pawłowski described the calls to replace Tusk as a desperate reaction to the election defeat. He noted that the liberal camp mistakenly believed Tusk’s victory in 2023 was a mandate for continued leadership. In reality, Szymon Hołownia played a crucial role in the coalition’s success, and the liberal camp failed to analyze the reasons for their victory properly.
Tusk’s Waning Influence
Pawłowski highlighted that Tusk, after seven years as prime minister, returned to the same position with diminished energy and vision. He shared an anecdote about a vice-minister who had to praise the government despite personal reservations, illustrating the lack of clear direction in the current administration. While the Civic Coalition would win elections, they would struggle to form a stable government due to weak coalition partners.
The Rise of Third Way
Pawłowski noted that the lack of competition in the liberal camp creates space for new movements like the Third Way, which poses a threat to Jarosław Kaczyński’s PiS party. He suggested that a successful candidate from outside traditional politics, like Szymon Hołownia, could attract significant support, as seen in the 2023 elections.
Future Political Scenarios
Pawłowski predicted that without a genuine populist leader, the ruling coalition could lose power. He argued that the Civic Coalition’s potential 40% support would not be enough to counter the combined 52-53% support for the right-wing parties. The political landscape remains volatile, with voters shifting between PiS and the Confederation due to generational differences.
PiS and Confederation Dynamics
Pawłowski analyzed the relationship between PiS and the Confederation, noting that they share anti-Tusk sentiments. He suggested that Kaczyński might attempt to win back some of the Confederation’s voters, as they were once part of PiS’s electoral base. However, any coalition between PiS and the Confederation would likely be unstable, as their voters have different priorities.
Trzaskowski’s Grievances
Pawłowski speculated that Rafał Trzaskowski’s public humiliation might have been orchestrated by Donald Tusk to curb his ambitions. He suggested that Trzaskowski believes his defeat was partly due to Tusk’s interference and the unpopularity of the government. However, Pawłowski dismissed the idea that Tusk could significantly weaken Kaczyński’s influence within PiS.
Conclusion
Pawłowski concluded that the political situation remains fluid, with both PiS and the Civic Coalition struggling to consolidate their support. He emphasized the need for the ruling coalition to address the growing inequality and anti-establishment sentiment to avoid losing power in the next elections.
