A former Ukrainian security‑service insider warns that Russia is using a fabricated “Ukrainian provocation” narrative—backed by false drone reports—to blame Kyiv for war escalations and sow discord in NATO allies.
Repetition of a “Ukrainian Provocation” Narrative
The U.S. Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia’s intelligence services regularly broadcast alarmist claims accusing Ukraine of preparing to strike NATO states’ critical infrastructure. These stories reappear every few months, creating a repeating pattern that shifts responsibility for wartime escalation onto Kyiv.
In reality, experts believe the Kremlin may use such narratives to court unsolicited attacks, then shift blame to Ukraine to justify further aggression.
Technical Capability for Sabotage and Drone Attacks
Former SBU employee Iwan Stupak says Russia and Belarus possess the technical facilities to sabotage critical Polish infrastructure or strike with drones and then blame Ukraine. He stresses the importance of separating verifiable facts from propaganda.
Scale and Tactics of Potential Drone Provocations
Stupak notes that Russia could deploy a small group of drones to a larger swarm—up to thirty or more—either in real attacks or staged displays. Drones could be marked with Ukrainian symbols to create fake evidence of Ukrainian involvement.
He also points out that reusing previously captured aircraft is technically impossible, emphasizing that such claims are unlikely.
Propaganda Operates in a Vacuum
Stupak reviewed recent statements from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, finding none that could be corroborated. He describes the documents as invented scenarios designed to portray activity where none exists.
Inside Russia, even established intelligence entities lack weight; lower‑level officers reportedly engage in discussions that appear more political than operational.
Kremlin Still Does Not Have an “Ideal Scenario”
Stupak argues that although provocations are strategically valuable, Moscow has yet to devise a perfect scenario that pits Poland against Ukraine. Methods range from exploiting historical memes to amplifying sensitive topics on social media.
The objective is to spark mutual accusations and transform the conflict into an international crisis. If Poland were to halt military aid to Ukraine, it would represent a significant geopolitical win for Russia—but such an outcome has not materialized.
Current Narratives Remain a Desperate Search
Poland remains a key partner for Ukraine, and recent Russian narratives appear to be a frantic attempt to find a weak link. So far, the Kremlin’s efforts have not yielded an effective operational plan.
