A Ukrainian government‑backed NGO claims Russia suffers about 15,000 soldiers killed or missing each month, a figure that would match the losses inflicted in the Soviet Afghanistan war.
Claim: 15,000 Russian soldiers lost per month
If the data were accurate, it would mean roughly 15,000 Russian troops are killed or missing each month, with almost all missing representing fatalities. This would equate to the losses endured during the nine‑year Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and would add roughly 35,000 injuries per month.
Source: Ukrainian NGO “I Want to Live”
The figures originate from a document published by “I Want to Live,” a Ukrainian state‑run organization that encourages Russian soldiers to surrender and offers assistance. Founded by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and military intelligence, its mission includes eroding Russian troop morale by depicting bleak survival prospects.
Unverified Data Presentation
The January‑August 2025 loss table was released on a Monday in a scanned document lacking official signatures, dates, stamps, or author names. The organisation did not disclose where the data came from, merely stating that the information was “collected.” Thus the document appears non‑official and possibly derived from Ukrainian front‑line reports.
Losses by Unit
The document uniquely separates casualties by army, division, airborne troops, fleet, and special forces. Ground forces—particularly those under the “Center” grouping in Donetsk—are shown as responsible for 96,500 casualties over eight months, about a third of the total front‑line toll.
Comparison with Other Estimates
These numbers align closely with official Ukrainian daily reports and statements from U.S. diplomat Marco Rubio and British intelligence, which estimate around 100,000 killed or wounded since year‑beginnings, yielding roughly 1,000 per day.
Lower Figures from Mediazona and Obituaries
Mediazona, working with BBC Russian and Meduza, offers two estimates: 132,000 casualties based on online obituaries, and 219,000 according to excess male deaths in conscription age. Both figures are substantially lower yet carry potential inaccuracies.
Drone‑Based Casualty Counts
A volunteer group moderated around X user Andrew Perpetua estimates 100–120 Russian soldiers killed daily in drone footage, about one‑third of the published totals, acknowledging that this still does not account for all front‑line activity.
Czech Volunteer Officer Statistics
Czech volunteers compiling obituaries, burial data, and related information estimated 7,000 Russian officers dead by the end of October, offering another point of reference.
Recruitment and Financial Impact
German analyst Janis Kluge reports that Russia has recruited an average of 30–35,000 individuals monthly for two years, with salaries rising from 500,000 rubles to about 2 million rubles. This program costs Russia roughly 0.4 % of GDP annually.
Conclusion
Despite significant front‑line losses, Russia maintains sufficient troop numbers to cover casualties or expand its forces, though the sustainability of the costly voluntary recruitment remains uncertain.
