Following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas endorsed by Donald Trump, questions loom over whether his 20‑point plan can translate into lasting peace, with Israel’s compliance and US guarantees at the center.
Agreement and First Stage
Israel and Hamas agreed to begin the first phase of a ceasefire initiated by Trump, marking a quiet victory for the former. The deal contains concrete steps designed to de-escalate violence in Gaza and in the West Bank.
Hamas pledged to release all remaining hostages to Israel; in return Israel committed to halt hostilities, withdraw its forces from the front line, free 2,000 of the 11,000 Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons (women and children included), and allow unrestricted flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Trump’s 20‑Point Peace Plan
Trump announced the ceasefire as the first milestone toward what he calls “strong, lasting, and eternal peace.” The plan contains 20 items, but many of its provisions are either unacceptable to Israel or to Hamas, undermining prospects for a durable settlement.
Key to the proposal is the demilitarization of Gaza and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave, coupled with a permanent halt to Israeli military operations in the area.
Security Guarantees and Hamas Resistance
U.S. security guarantees, based on Washington’s military and financial support for Israel, suffer from limited credibility. The threat that Israel could resume hostilities if Hamas fully disarmed has led Hamas to refuse any declaration of willingness to demilitarize Gaza.
The withdrawal schedule laid out in the plan is prolonged and indistinct, providing Israel with opportunities to renege on the agreement at each intermediate stage.
Netanyahu’s Uncompromising Stance
Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Israel will either annex all of Gaza or at least a substantial portion. He has hinted that Israeli forces will remain entrenched deep within Gaza and, despite promises of a 70% pull‑out, has resisted backing the plan.
Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, a hard‑right leader, voiced that he would not support the withdrawal, underscoring the internal Israeli divisions over the ceasefire.
Trump’s Unique Leverage and the Uncertain Future
Trump’s willingness to apply pressure on Netanyahu—something Biden has avoided—has already forced two ceasefire agreements in ten months. However, whether the former president can convince Netanyahu that any Israeli resistance will trigger decisive consequences remains unproven.
With public opinion in the U.S. increasingly critical of Israel and Trump’s control over the Republican Party, the path to a genuine peace remains precarious, leaving Palestinians’ hopes for justice, sovereignty, and return to home lands tethered to Trump’s political will.
