A United Surveys poll released for Wp.pl finds Szymon Hołowni’s Polish 2050 party facing a dramatic decline, putting the ruling coalition at risk of losing its majority.
Recent Poll Results
A new United Surveys poll for Wp.pl measured support for major parties. The Civic Coalition garnered 29.8 %, a drop of 0.2 pp from late‑September; PiS led with 28.9 %, up 0.4 pp. Confederation came in third with 13.9 %, down 0.8 pp. If the October parliamentary election had been held, New Left would add 7.3 % and the Confederation of the Polish Crown 6.2 %. Below the electoral threshold would be the PO (3.9 %), Together (2.4 %), and Polish 2050 (1.6 %). Six percent of respondents were undecided.
Polling Methodology
The study used CATI/CAWI techniques—telephone and online surveys—on a sample of 1,000 respondents between 10 and 12 October.
Current Parliamentary Composition
Absence of the PO and Polish 2050 from the Sejm would deprive the governing coalition of a majority. The composition of the current Sejm is: PiS 188 MPs, KO 157, PO 32, Polish 2050 30, Left 21, Confederation 16, Together 5, Liberal Republicans 4, Confederation of the Polish Crown 3, with four MPs unaffiliated.
Comparison with 2023 Election
In 2023, PiS received 35.38 %, KO 30.7 %, and the Third Way coalition (Polish 2050 + PO) 14.4 %. Its parliamentary seats were: PiS 194, KO 157, Third Way 65, Left 26, and Confederation 18.
Implications for the Governing Majority
If the October poll reflected actual results, the ruling coalition would lose its majority in the Sejm, potentially forcing a shift in Poland’s political balance.
