October CBOS poll shows Braun’s party near parliamentary entry; PSL fails to meet threshold, prompting doubts over coalition arrangements.
CBOS Findings
The CBOS survey conducted 15‑17 October among 1,000 adults found that the Civic Coalition received 31.2% of the vote, while Law and Justice gained 28.1% and the Confederation Freedom and Independence obtained 12.4%. The results indicate that Braun’s party has a strong showing.
Potential Parliamentary Seats
According to the CBOS data, additional parties that could enter the Sejm are the Confederation of the Polish Crown (9.9%), the Left (6.5%) and Together (5.2%). Parties that fell short of the 5% threshold are the Polish People’s Party (PSL) at 3.3% and Polska 2050 at 2.5%.
National Research Group Results
The National Research Group released a separate poll showing the Civic Coalition estimated at 38.12%, Law and Justice at 29.81%, and Confederation at 15.5%. The Confederation of the Polish Crown would gain 6.02% and could secure a seat if it crosses the threshold. Parties below the threshold were New Left (4.13%), PSL (2.03%), Together (2.03%) and Polska 2050 (1.61%).
Coalition Prospects and PSL Status
On Thursday, Władysław Kosiniak‑Kamisz declared that the Polish People’s Party would run independently in the upcoming parliamentary elections, as it is “a separate political party.” This move could signal the end of PSL representation in the Sejm, since recent polls show the party hovering below the threshold. Sources report that a common list of all ruling parties is still conceivable despite politicians’ reassurances.
