Polish authorities say sabotage of Lublin‑Warsaw rail lines last weekend was part of a Russian destabilisation campaign, with Ukrainian citizens acting on Kremlin orders; analysts call the attacks a Phase Zero operation aimed at eroding confidence in NATO.
Sabotage Embedded in Russia’s Destabilization Strategy
Polish officials linked weekend rail attacks to Russian special‑services actions. Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on 18 November that two Ukrainian citizens, allegedly at the behest of Russians, struck two sections of the Lublin‑Warsaw line. The sabotage, reportedly carried out with explosives beneath the tracks at Mik, involved agents who entered Poland via Belarus in the autumn and returned after the operation.
Poland’s Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak‑Kamysz described the incidents as part of a broader Russian campaign to “destroy communities, alliances and sow uncertainty.” General Staff Chief Wiesław Kukuła said Poland was in a “pre‑war situation,” with Russia creating conditions for potential aggression.
Phase Zero
Experts at the Institute for War Studies have warned that the Kremlin is conducting operations called “Phase Zero,” intended to destabilise NATO states, erode public trust, shape opinion and test defensive responses. These activities include cyberattacks, disinformation, provocations and sabotage of critical infrastructure, such as the rail sabotage in Poland.
NATO Chief Mark Rutte said Russia had entered the first preparation stage—Phase Zero—implying a long‑term confrontation with Ukraine and other members. The alliance must treat these signals with the utmost seriousness.
Critical Infrastructure Targeted
The sabotage on the Lublin‑Warsaw line is among the most alarming signals in recent months. Railways are vital for both civilian and military logistics, and an attack can threaten a country’s defensive capability. Phase Zero strategy focuses on high‑operational and symbolic targets, such as energy grids, ports, communications and rail infrastructure.
Even a single incident can trigger a psychological impact far exceeding the physical damage inflicted.
Investigation Continues
Special‑services coordinator spokesman Jacek Dobrzyński stated that intensive operational and reconnaissance activities are underway on the Warsaw‑Lublin route, including arrests and track securing and analysis in Mik and Puławy.
He also noted that the first arrests had already been made.
