A new IPSOS poll reveals that 30 % of voters who cast for Poland’s Confederation in 2023 now plan to support Grzegorz Braun’s Crown party.
Poll Results: Civic Coalition Leads, PiS Strong, Left Matches Crown
In an IPSOS survey for Radio Zet, turnout for an upcoming parliamentary election would be 63 %. The highest support came from the Civic Coalition at 30 %, followed by the Law and Justice party with 25 %. Confederation secured a third place with 13 %. Subsequent positions were Crown at 7 %, New Left at 7 %, Together Party at 6 %, Poland 2050 and PSL each at 3 %. Seven per cent of respondents answered “I don’t know/can’t decide,” meaning the seat share would exclude PSL and Poland 2050 from the Sejm.
Voter Flow Dynamics
The poll also tracked how voters shifted from 2023. Loyalty remained high among the largest parties: 83 % of former PiS voters still back PiS and 90 % of former KO voters stay with KO. Among New Left supporters, 27 % moved to the Together Party while 53 % continue with New Left. A minority of former Poland 2050 and PSL voters remain loyal at 24 % and 15 % respectively. Third‑Way voters are split, with 19 % now supporting KO and 13 % leaning toward PiS or Confederation.
Bad News for Confederation: One‑Third Back Braun
Of the 100 % of Confederation voters in 2023, 60 % still plan to cast their ballot for Confederation in the next election. However, 30 % wish to switch to Braun’s Crown, and a smaller 4 % will vote for PiS. These shifts illustrate increasing fragmentation within the former Confederation base.
