Donbas Still Disputed, Vance Hints at Possible Dark Scenario

U.S. Vice‑President J.D. Vance warns that Ukraine could lose the Donbas region, urging negotiations to resolve territorial disputes amid ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine.

The Donbas Issue

The core of the conflict remains the Donbas region. President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with the Defense Ministry, emphasized that Kyiv’s claims over Donbas are “still alive” and relate to the “historical lands of Russia.”

Border Negotiations Remain Key

Vance said the most difficult topic today is the definition of borders, which is critical for Ukraine’s security and European stability, especially for NATO’s eastern flank. He acknowledged progress in talks, noting that sides have identified non‑compromisable issues while areas such as the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, minority rights and the fate of occupied residents remain open for negotiation.

Vance Discusses Transatlantic Relations

In an UnHerd interview, the vice‑president dismissed accusations that the Trump administration was seeking to split Europe over Ukraine. Instead, he said Washington’s goal is to strengthen European autonomy in security matters, while criticizing the continent’s fragile political and economic condition. He stressed that historic and cultural ties between the U.S. and Europe remain a foundation for cooperation.

Negotiations Might Stall in Another Year

Vance admitted the recent negotiations—labelled constructive by the U.S. and Ukraine—do not guarantee peace yet. He warned that while a settlement is possible, a failure scenario is equally likely, and the talks could continue for at least another year.

Recent Diplomatic Meetings

On 19 December in Miami, the Ukrainian delegation led by National Security and Defense Advisor Rustem Umerov met U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The talks produced a 20‑point peace plan, which President Zelensky welcomed as a tangible framework. Between 20 and 21 December, U.S. officials, including Jared Kushner and Josh Grunbaum, met with Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the talks were not breakthrough, citing deep animosity between Putin and Zelensky.

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