The International Monetary Fund has revised upward its economic growth forecast for Poland to 3.5% for 2026, one of the highest increases among major economies.
Global Economic Outlook
Global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, similar to the estimated 3.3% for 2025. This represents a slight upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared to the October 2025 World Economic Outlook report.
Poland’s Economic Performance
Against the global backdrop, Poland’s economy performs slightly better. The IMF raised Poland’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.4 percentage points, making it one of the highest revisions made today. According to IMF analysts, the Polish economy is expected to grow faster than the global average and faster than any large EU country.
Market consensus suggests Poland’s economy will accelerate to around 3.5-3.8% y/y in 2026, with some economists seeing potential for GDP growth of 4% y/y this year.
Regional Forecasts
For the eurozone, the IMF revised GDP growth upward by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3% y/y this year compared to October expectations, while maintaining the 1.4% y/y GDP growth forecast for 2027.
For Poland, particularly important are the prospects of the German economy, which has recently remained in stagnation and was the only major economy in the world to record a GDP decline in 2023. The IMF revised Germany’s GDP upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1% y/y this year compared to October expectations and forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% y/y in 2027, unchanged from previous forecasts. Estimates for last year’s GDP growth for Germany stand at +0.2%.
Global Economic Risks
Risks to global economic growth include geopolitical factors. The IMF notes that risks to global economic outlook remain greater on the side of achieving lower GDP growth rates than presented. The institution cites escalating geopolitical situations worldwide as a risk. Trade tensions related to US trade policy could also intensify, prolonging uncertainty and having a greater impact on economic activity.
According to the IMF, larger fiscal deficits and high public debt may exert pressure on overall financial conditions.
Potential Growth Boosters
“On the other hand, economic activity could be further stimulated by investments related to artificial intelligence and ultimately transform into sustainable growth if faster implementation of artificial intelligence translates into strong productivity growth and increased business dynamics. Economic activity could also be supported by a lasting easing of trade tensions,” reads the IMF report.
