The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts Poland’s economic growth at 3.7% in 2026, with weaker foreign demand presenting the main risk.
Economic Projections for Poland
Growth is expected to reach 3.7% in 2026, then slow to 3% in 2027. Public investments will be supported by peak EU fund disbursements before RRF deadlines and increased defense spending.
Poland has secured an allocation of 43.7 billion euros under the new EU borrowing instrument SAFE, with disbursements beginning in early 2026.
Investment Drivers
The momentum from increased defense spending will be weakened by heavy dependence on imported equipment.
Public investments will be supported by peak EU fund disbursements before RRF deadlines and increased defense spending.
Regional Growth Outlook
Economic growth in the Central Europe and Baltic region, which includes Poland, accelerated to 2.6% in 2025, exceeding expectations.
The projected economic growth in 2026 for individual countries in this region is as follows: Croatia (+2.7%), Czech Republic (+2.6%), Estonia (+2.2%), Hungary (+2%), Latvia (+2.2%), Lithuania (+3.3%), Slovakia (+1%), Slovenia (+2.2%).
Key Risk Factors
Weaker export demand poses a risk of economic downturn, according to the EBOR report ‘Regional Economic Prospects, February 2026’.
