A new United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska, conducted March 13-15, indicates a changing political landscape in Poland, with the Confederation party emerging as a key player.
Civic Coalition Leads, PiS and Confederation Follow
The latest poll places the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) in first place with 32.6% support, followed by Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) at 25%, and the Confederation at 14.7%.
Other parties received the following support: Confederation Korony Polskiej (8.5%), The Left (Lewica) (6.7%), Polish People’s Party (PSL) (4.2%), Partia Razem (2.2%), and Poland 2050 (0.7%). 5.4% of respondents remained undecided.
Methodology and Sample
The survey employed a mixed CATI & CAWI method (computer-assisted telephone interviews and computer-assisted web interviews) with a nationwide sample of 1,000 Polish adults.
Confederation’s Rising Support
Compared to a previous IBRiS poll conducted February 27-March 1, the Civic Coalition saw a 2 percentage point increase, while Law and Justice gained 1.5 percentage points. The Confederation experienced a more significant increase, gaining 2.5 percentage points.
Parties Above Electoral Threshold
All of the aforementioned parties surpassed the electoral threshold, including the Confederation of Grzegorz Braun and The Left. The poll suggests that the PSL, Poland 2050, and Partia Razem would not secure representation in the Sejm.
Potential Governing Coalitions
A simulation using Professor Jarosław Flis’s electoral calculator indicates that in a 460-seat Sejm, the Civic Coalition would win 189 seats, and Law and Justice would secure 140 seats.
Further results show the Confederation with 74 seats, Confederation Korony Polskiej with 34 seats, and The Left with 23 seats. A broad right-wing coalition (PiS + the entire Confederation) would hold a majority (248 seats), while the current governing coalition (KO + The Left) without the PSL and Poland 2050 would lose its majority.
PiS Considers Potential Alliances
Przemysław Czarnek, a representative of Law and Justice, stated that if PiS wins the parliamentary elections, they would be open to forming a coalition with parties willing to create a responsible government, with the final decision resting with the Polish electorate.
Mentzen Challenges Czarnek
Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation criticized Czarnek, deeming him lacking independence and rejecting a debate invitation. Mentzen urged Czarnek to begin any speech with an apology for past failures.
