Polish lawmakers highlighted the year-long freeze on debate regarding legislation intended to prevent a Polexit, while Prime Minister Tusk warned against actions that could trigger such a move.
Poland 2050 Raises Concerns Over Stalled Anti-Polexit Bill
Politicians from Poland 2050 reminded during a Sejm conference that work on the so-called anti-Polexit law has been stalled in the Foreign Affairs Committee for a year. The proposed legislation stipulates that Poland’s exit from the European Union would only be possible through a national referendum.
Current regulations would allow for a Polexit through an act of parliament.
Security Risk: Deputy Minister Warns of Real Polexit Threat
Deputy Minister of Funds, Jan Krzysztof Szyszko, stated that Polexit is a real threat and that Poland 2050’s bill to counter it has been frozen for a year. He emphasized this is a matter of national security, not routine politics.
Tusk Recalls Cameron’s Brexit Gamble
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, speaking on TVN24’s “Bez kitu” program, explained his reluctance to initiate legislation regarding a referendum on EU membership. He recalled his experience as European Council President during the UK’s anti-European rebellion, which culminated in the Brexit referendum.
Tusk recounted a conversation with then-Prime Minister David Cameron, who confidently predicted a vote to remain in the EU. Tusk noted the subsequent outcome.
Caution Against Provoking a Referendum
“I would be very cautious, very restrained before undertaking political actions or decisions, such as enacting a law on a referendum regarding a possible exit from the European Union, because I really don’t want to provoke the devil,” Tusk explained.
Brexit Precedent: Shifting Public Opinion
Tusk pointed out that initiating a discussion on a referendum law could shift the debate towards whether to hold a referendum and when. He noted that before the Brexit referendum, nearly 70% of Britons favored remaining in the EU, yet Cameron proceeded with the vote. Today, a similar percentage would like to rejoin the EU.
2027 Elections: A Critical Juncture
According to the Prime Minister, if anti-European forces win the 2027 elections, no law will prevent a Polexit. “If we hand power in 2027 to those who want to leave the EU, they will bring it about and leave the EU,” Tusk assessed.
Public Opinion on Polexit: A Growing Divide
A January 2016 referendum in the United Kingdom saw 51.89% of voters choose to leave the European Union. The UK formally left the community on January 31, 2020, at midnight.
A January 2024 OGB poll asked respondents how they would vote in a potential referendum on Poland’s EU membership. In February 2019, 89.9% favored remaining in the EU, 6.7% supported Polexit, and 6.4% would not participate. This January, after seven years, support for remaining in the EU fell to 67.5%, while support for Polexit rose to 24.5%, with 8% abstaining. OGB head Łukasz Pawłowski described these changes as “colossal” and statistically significant.
