The war in the Middle East is boosting Russian revenues as oil prices have jumped approximately 75% in the last month, exceeding $100 per barrel.
Russia Benefits from Middle East Tensions
The war in the Middle East is driving up Russia’s revenues, with oil prices experiencing a significant surge. Economists at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PIE) report a price increase of around 75% in the last month, surpassing $100 per barrel.
PIE also suggests the conflict could lead to fertilizer shortages, which would further benefit Moscow.
Oil Price Spike Following Attacks
The Institute notes that a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran triggered a “dramatic increase” in global oil prices. Threats from Tehran regarding the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure are increasing the risk of further price increases.
Increased Russian Revenue Projections
According to PIE’s latest Economic Weekly, the price of Russian Urals oil has risen by approximately 75% in the last month, exceeding $100 USD per barrel. Citing estimates from the Financial Times, the Institute projects that Moscow could receive an additional $3.3-4.9 billion in budgetary revenue by the end of March.
The duration of the Middle East war and the intensity of calls for easing sanctions against Russia will be key factors. The Institute also expressed concern over the U.S. administration’s easing of some sanctions, such as allowing the purchase of Russian oil already at sea.
Strait of Hormuz and Fertilizer Markets at Risk
PIE indicates that the European Commission’s postponement of the REPowerEU plan presentation—regarding the phasing out of Russian energy imports—may reflect growing tensions among EU member states.
The war in the Middle East and a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could also cause fertilizer shortages and price increases, ultimately leading to higher food prices, which would also benefit Moscow.
Global Trade Disruption Potential
According to Argus estimates, closing the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt 20-50% of international trade in urea, sulfur, phosphates, and ammonia. Russia is a major global fertilizer exporter (approximately 15% market share) and the world’s largest wheat exporter (18% of global exports).
Russia May Exploit Food Market Instability
The report’s authors suggest Moscow may attempt to exploit the agricultural and food markets, similar to its actions in 2022-2023 when it blocked Ukrainian exports and increased its role in deliveries to the Middle East.
Decline in Russian Energy Revenue in 2025
PIE recalls a “significant decrease” in Russian revenue from oil and gas exports in 2025, due to both high supply and sanctions. The price difference between Russian Urals oil and Brent crude increased from a few dollars to over $25 per barrel in 2025.
Recent Decline in Russian Oil Exports
In February of this year, Russian oil deliveries to global markets were below forecasts, following successful Ukrainian attacks on refineries and export infrastructure. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil exports decreased to 6.6 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
