A surge of highly specific bets on a US-Iran ceasefire appeared on the Polymarket platform just before the agreement, netting some traders substantial profits.
Predictive Market Dynamics
Polymarket is a platform where users trade tokens representing potential event outcomes, typically betting “yes” or “no” on a given question. Unlike traditional bookmakers, Polymarket’s odds are determined by participants through a bidding process, reflecting collective predictions.
The platform focuses on larger political and economic events, rather than detailed sports betting. Polymarket is illegal in Poland and considered unlawful gambling.
Sudden Influx of Bets
A group of new Polymarket users placed significant bets predicting a US-Iran ceasefire on April 7th, generating hundreds of thousands of dollars in winnings. At least 50 accounts participated in this activity.
These bets were placed shortly before the ceasefire announcement, despite escalating rhetoric from the US, including a threat from Trump that “the entire civilization will die tonight.”
New Accounts, Large Gains
Analysis of Polymarket data reveals that at least 50 accounts placed substantial bets on a ceasefire before Trump’s public announcement. Crucially, these were the first bets made by these specific accounts.
One account, created eight hours before the announcement, wagered approximately $72,000 and earned over $200,000. Another, established a day earlier, gained over $125,000 on a similar bet. A third, created 12 minutes before Trump’s announcement, bet nearly $32,000 and won $48,500.
Concerns of Insider Information
“There is nothing stopping government officials from profiting off their positions.”
Some speculate that traders anticipated Trump’s tendency to make bold threats followed by reversals. The availability of data on Polymarket does not allow for the identification of the individuals controlling the new accounts.
Blake Moore, a US Representative, suggested the transactions were likely made with inside information, stating, “It is highly improbable that these are transactions made in good faith. It is far more likely that these are insiders who have access to information before the public.”
Past Instances and Broader Implications
This is not the first time Polymarket has seen timely, high-stakes bets before major US policy decisions. In January, a surge of bets predicted the loss of power by Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, shortly before his capture by US forces. The platform then refused to pay out winnings, citing the lack of a “military invasion.”
CNN reported that one trader has earned nearly $1 million since 2024 by correctly predicting events related to Iran on Polymarket, including the Israel-Iran conflict and potential attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. These events have raised concerns about the use of non-public information for profit on prediction markets, prompting legislative proposals to broaden the definition of insider trading.
