Ilona Gizińska of the Centre for Eastern Studies analyzes Hungary’s election, emphasizing the crucial role of swing districts, the diaspora vote, and potential challenges for a Tisza government.
Key to Victory Lies in Swing Districts
The outcome of the Hungarian election remains uncertain, despite polls favoring the opposition Tisza party. The ruling Fidesz benefits from electoral system advantages.
Securing support in approximately ten single-member districts – Hungary’s swing states – is critical. The votes of the Hungarian diaspora will also be significant, though results will take several days to tally due to the lack of an automated counting system.
Unprecedented Election Dynamics
These elections are unprecedented, marking the first time Fidesz faces a single major opposition force with a realistic chance of taking power. Legitimacy of the results is a concern, as the Hungarian system allows a party with less national support to claim victory.
Potential Challenges for a Tisza Government
A two-thirds parliamentary majority is essential for Tisza to enact deep systemic changes. Without it, governing would be difficult, potentially leading to voter frustration as promised reforms remain unfulfilled.
However, Tisza might find pragmatic support from the business sector, eager to access public funds. Even without a supermajority, attempts to dismantle the existing system will be made.
Tisza’s Transition and Program
Tisza, rooted in protests against Fidesz’s abuses, has published a 240-page program addressing various social groups. Critics note similarities to Fidesz’s policies, particularly regarding extensive social welfare programs.
Tisza proposes funding these promises by accessing EU funds currently frozen due to rule-of-law concerns, requiring reforms that necessitate a two-thirds parliamentary majority.
Economic Concerns and Fitch Ratings Downgrade
Hungary faces a significant budget deficit, exacerbated by pre-election spending. The government projects a 5% of GDP deficit this year, raising concerns among international financial institutions.
Fitch Ratings downgraded Hungary’s credit rating outlook to “negative,” citing deteriorating public finances due to increased pre-election spending.
Foreign Policy Shift and Relations with Russia
Tisza aims to align Hungary more closely with the EU and Western structures, moving away from Orbán’s balancing act between East and West. This includes curtailing relations with Russia.
Verification of existing agreements with Russia and China will be necessary, as Tisza currently lacks access to those documents.
Orbán’s Potential Response and Future Elections
Whether Fidesz will obstruct a transfer of power remains uncertain, though Orbán has indicated a willingness to move into opposition. He is expected to focus on regaining power in the 2030 elections.
Addressing the budget deficit will be problematic without a two-thirds majority, and snap elections are a possibility.
Path Forward: Rule of Law and EU Funds
With a simple majority, the focus would be on restoring the rule of law, civil liberties, unlocking EU funds, and reforming the entire system – a challenging but achievable task.
