A shooting at a Washington D.C. hotel, the third incident in two years, has targeted Donald Trump as the U.S. heads toward pivotal elections.
Three Attempts on Trump’s Life in Two Years
On Saturday, April 25th, shots rang out in the lobby of the Washington Hilton hotel. Cole Tomas Allen, a 31-year-old teacher and engineer from Torrance, California, entered the building armed with a shotgun, pistol, and knives.
A Secret Service agent was struck, but the bullet hit a bulletproof vest. The President, First Lady Melania Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and dozens of high-ranking administration officials were evacuated from the ballroom where they were dining with hundreds of journalists.
Echoes of History and a Growing Threat
This is the third such incident in less than two years. In July 2024, a sniper’s bullet grazed Trump’s ear during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. In September 2024, an assailant lurked with a weapon near a golf course in Florida. The Washington Hilton is the same hotel where John Hinckley Jr. shot Ronald Reagan 45 years ago.
“Friendly Federal Assassin” and Political Motivations
In a manifesto, Allen called himself a “Friendly Federal Assassin” and stated his target was those connected to the Trump administration. He wrote he could “no longer accept that the crimes of a pedophile, rapist and traitor stain my hands.” His sister told investigators her brother participated in anti-Trump “No Kings” protests in California and belonged to the left-wing group “The Wide Awakes.”
Political Violence Embedded in the American Landscape
“In the history of the U.S., four presidents have been killed in office, so violence is deeply ingrained in the American political landscape,” says Magdalena Górnicka-Partyka.
Rising Concerns About Political Violence
According to a Pew Research Center study from September 2025, surveying over 3,400 American adults, 85% of respondents believe political violence in the U.S. is increasing. This belief is shared by both Republicans (86%) and Democrats (85%). However, there is disagreement on the causes. 28% of Democrats directly point to Trump’s rhetoric and the MAGA movement, while this percentage is significantly lower among Republicans, who predominantly blame the opposing side.
Polarization, Access to Weapons, and a Predictable Outcome
“The fact that violence is targeting Trump is due to the enormous polarization he fuels and benefits from, as well as a decline in trust in the democratic process and a sense of hopelessness in society. The widespread availability of weapons is also key – there are more guns than people in the U.S. I wasn’t surprised by Saturday’s incident; unfortunately, another attack was to be expected after the two previous attempts,” the expert adds.
Trump’s Image of Invincibility
“Trump wants to go down in history as an invincible leader who doesn’t bow to bullets.”
Chaos and a Calculated Response
Footage from the ballroom shows guests diving to the floor, hiding under tables, while Trump, before being evacuated by agents, barely reacted, even offering a slight smile. The President later commented in an interview with CBS: “I wasn’t worried. I understand life. We live in a crazy world.”
This footage fueled conspiracy theories that the attack may have been planned due to Trump’s declining poll numbers. The President explained he simply wanted to see what was happening, and perhaps ensure his administration was safe amidst the chaos. Media noted the evacuation was disorganized – Vance was evacuated first, then Trump. The President may have felt he was in a movie, a genre he enjoys. While there was significant chaos, Trump praised the security services, as admitting errors in protecting the head of state would damage his image.
Messianic Tones and the Christian Vote
As the expert adds, Trump thinks in terms of images – he wants to go down in history as a leader who “bullets don’t bend.” “He treats every attempt on his life as an opportunity to show strength and claims that opponents want to stop him from ‘making America great again.’ After the Butler attack, he began to be portrayed as ‘God’s anointed,’ miraculously saved by higher powers. These messianic and supernatural tones will likely be heavily used in the campaign before the midterm elections to attract Christian voters, whom he recently alienated with a controversial image depicting him as Jesus.”
The “Rally Around the Flag” Effect and Economic Concerns
Typically, attacks lead to a temporary surge in support for the president. After Butler in 2024, this effect was moderate and short-lived. The expert believes a similar effect now is unlikely to last until the midterm elections, as Americans will be voting with their wallets. High gasoline prices due to the conflict with Iran are a key concern for household budgets. Trump’s harsh immigration policies have also disappointed some voters. It’s unclear whether the “flag effect” and solidarity after the attack will translate into voter turnout.
Cracks in the MAGA Movement
Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett wrote on Threads at 2:51 AM: “Has there ever been a president with so many ‘assassination attempts’? Maybe it’s weak gun laws, maybe it’s a lack of mental health funding, or maybe it’s a false flag…” This was not an isolated voice. Notably, similar doubts – though for different reasons – are also emerging among disillusioned MAGA voters. Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene have previously questioned the official narrative about the Butler attack.
Growing Divisions Within the Right
Do the conspiracy theories that have emerged after Saturday’s incident reveal cracks in the MAGA movement? Górnicka-Partyka responds: “definitely.” “Even on the far right, speculation is emerging that the attacks are staged. This shows there is a significant rift that Trump doesn’t want to admit. It arose on the wave of the Jeffrey Epstein affair and deepened after the attack on Iran. The isolationist and anti-Israel wing strongly opposes Trump’s actions, which they see as realizing Benjamin Netanyahu’s vision. This could lead to a major realignment and split on the right after Trump leaves office.”
“May Day Strong” Protests Loom
The expert was also asked about the “May Day Strong” protests planned for May 1st. According to “The Guardian,” organizers expect over 3,500 actions nationwide. The demonstrations are supported by a broad union coalition: NEA, AFT, AFL-CIO, National Nurses United, representing 200,000 nurses, and Starbucks Workers United. Slogans include: “Workers over billionaires,” “No ICE, no war, no private army.” This is the third wave of protests after “Hands Off” and “No Kings” – and the first with such strong union backing.
Leveraging Protest for Political Gain
“These are grassroots, ideologically left-wing protests associated with labor unions. Trump may try to use them to radicalize the opposition, claiming protesters are fueling a spiral of violence. The right is already suggesting the attacker participated in the ‘No Kings’ protests, aiming to portray opponents as ‘radical leftists’ lurking to harm the president,” says Górnicka-Partyka. The Trump administration is, once again, employing a narrative of “one man with a gun casting a shadow over tens of thousands of protesters.”
Iran: A War Without Plan or Support
On the same day “May Day Strong” protests were planned for American cities, the 60-day deadline from the War Powers Resolution of 1973 expired. Trump is formally obligated to end military operations in Iran or obtain Congressional approval.
Lack of Congressional Oversight and Public Opposition
The first joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28th. Trump notified Congress on March 2nd. Since the start of the conflict, there has been no public debate in Congress on the war. “Time” magazine noted that politicians from both parties privately admit to a lack of reliable information about the operation.
Public opinion is clear. An Economist/YouGov poll from April 17-20 shows 58% of Americans oppose the war, while only 31% support it. An Ipsos poll from April 10-12 yields equally compelling data: only 24% of Americans believe the decision to attack Iran was worth the cost, while 51% disagree.
Trump’s Disregard for Legal Constraints
What will Trump do on May 1st? He may seek a 30-day extension (the law allows this once, particularly for troop withdrawal), argue that the ceasefire “stopped the clock,” or ignore the deadline altogether. None of these options will face legal sanction. Courts consistently refuse to intervene in disputes between the executive and legislative branches on war matters, treating them as “political questions.” “Trump will likely argue that the temporary ceasefire in Iran stopped the clock. The current president often ignores or bends the law to his political goals, using the method of *faits accomplis*. If Republicans lose the midterm elections, it may soon be over,” the expert believes.
Midterm Elections and Potential Constraints on Trump
The midterm elections will be held in the U.S. on November 3rd. Americans will elect the House of Representatives and 1/3 of the Senate. How might these elections limit Trump’s actions?
“Even with ‘favorable winds’ for the Democrats, a successful impeachment is unlikely, but they could ‘tie his hands’ for his last two years in office. Currently, Congress has relinquished its oversight functions, and Trump can do as he pleases, governing through executive orders. If Democrats take the House of Representatives, Trump will no longer be able to do so. Democrats could establish investigative committees to thoroughly examine the actions of his administration. Trump fears this and wants to avoid it. House Speaker Mike Johnson said the upcoming elections are a matter of ‘being or not being’ for Trump. I don’t think he exaggerated.”
Accountable to God and History
“Does this mean the United States has a president who is unaccountable?” – Trump feels accountable primarily to God and history. The presidential system, in certain hands – here, in the case of Trump – leads to dangerous consequences, as political scientists observe. After his presidency, more ‘checks and balances’ should be introduced so that no president has royal power and can’t ignore the law with impunity,” the expert concludes.
