The National Bank of Poland has kept interest rates unchanged as the Monetary Policy Council warns that geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility continue to threaten economic stability.
Global Pressures on Inflation and the Economy
The Monetary Policy Council indicated in a statement following its meeting that inflation and economic activity prospects in Poland remain heavily dependent on changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as commodity price fluctuations and global inflation influenced by the geopolitical situation.
The Council noted that significant risk factors for inflation include the nature of fiscal policy, fuel price regulations, the pace of changes in domestic economic activity, and further wage growth dynamics.
In the first quarter of 2026, annual GDP growth slowed in the Eurozone and increased in the United States. Due to supply constraints linked to the Middle East conflict, global fuel prices rose, leading to increased inflation in many economies, though agricultural commodity prices remain lower than a year ago.
Polish Data Indicates Possible GDP Slowdown
In Poland, retail sales, industrial production, and construction-assembly grew year-on-year in March 2026. However, cumulative data since the start of the year signals that annual GDP growth in Q1 2026 likely decreased, with enterprise sector wage dynamics being lower than the previous quarter and employment continuing to decline.
According to preliminary GUS data, April CPI inflation was 3.2% year-on-year, compared to 3.0% in March. The increase was primarily due to higher fuel price dynamics related to the Middle East conflict, and core inflation is also estimated to have risen in April.
RPP Maintains Interest Rates and Signals Further Decisions
Due to geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on the economy, the Council decided to maintain interest rates at an unchanged level. Future decisions will depend on incoming information regarding inflation and economic activity prospects in Poland.
The NBP will continue to take all necessary actions to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability, including maintaining inflation at the NBP’s medium-term target, which may include interventions in the foreign exchange market.
Current NBP Interest Rates Unchanged
The Council decided to maintain the following rates: a 3.75% annual reference rate, a 4.25% annual lombard rate, a 3.25% annual deposit rate, a 3.80% annual rediscount rate, and a 3.85% annual bill discount rate.
