Xi Jinping has purged China’s top military leadership, removing commanders including his closest ally General Zhang Youxia.
American Intelligence: No Clear Reasons
According to the New York Times, the removal of General Zhang Youxia – considered Xi Jinping’s closest and most trusted commander – came as a shock to American analysts. Chinese authorities only announced “serious violations of discipline and law” without providing any details.
Current and former U.S. officials report there is currently no clear answer why Xi decided on such a radical step. Among possible scenarios mentioned are a real political threat, an attempt to preempt a potential rebellion, or another phase of a widespread purge campaign serving to strengthen the leader’s personal power.
“Paranoia Is a Trait of the System”
American analyses cited by the New York Times suggest that Xi Jinping may exhibit an exceptionally high level of distrust toward his surroundings. Experts note that in authoritarian systems, people from the inner circle of power are perceived as the greatest threat.
“As an autocrat, you must be a paranoid. You never know who is truly loyal,” assesses Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist studying the erosion of dictatorships. Other experts emphasize that a too effective and popular general could become an alternative center of power, which is enough to arouse a leader’s suspicions.
Army Without Leadership
The consequence of Xi’s recent decisions is the almost complete cleansing of military leadership in the Central Military Commission. Of the six generals appointed in 2022, only one remains – and he is a political officer, not a frontline commander.
The Commission is chaired by Xi Jinping himself, which means the world’s largest army has been effectively deprived of classic military leadership. The New York Times points out that since early 2023, almost all generals and admirals commanding key military structures have been removed or disappeared from public view.
Corruption, Taiwan or Power Struggle?
Officially, Beijing explains the purges as a fight against corruption with a “zero tolerance” policy. American officials do not rule out that corruption in the military is indeed a serious problem, but they emphasize that the scale of operations also suggests political motives.
In the background, speculation arises about disputes over Taiwan and the pace of preparations for a potential conflict. Experts, however, warn against overinterpretation – they see no evidence of a conspiracy or betrayal, and the circulating accusations may serve only to discredit the removed generals.
In the opinion of analysts cited by the New York Times, the purges may temporarily paralyze the decision-making process in the Chinese military and increase the unpredictability of Beijing’s actions.
