Bill Gates published a climate article on 29 October 2025, just before COP 30 in Brazil, at the same time a Category‑5 hurricane hit Jamaica.
Context of Gates’ Release and the Hurricane Parallel
Gates’ article appeared deliberately on the eve of COP 30, a coincidence that overlapped with the arrival of Hurricane Melissa, a Category‑5 storm that struck Jamaica amid a climate‑driven weather pattern.
Conceding Consequences but Dismissed Catastrophe
He acknowledges that climate change will have serious repercussions for the poorest nations, yet he maintains that it will not lead to humanity’s end, a stance that has been criticized as downplaying risk.
Shift From Scandal to Optimism
Earlier, Trump claimed to have proven Gates’ climate “scam” when Gates admitted he was “completely wrong.” In his latest piece, Gates no longer frames climate as a fraud, presenting a more hopeful tone grounded in technological advances.
Technological Progress and Cost Decline
Gates highlights rapid advances and falling costs in renewables, especially photovoltaics. The price of solar panels has dropped sharply, fueling a boom from Poland to Pakistan.
Overlooking Ecosystem Limits and Critical Thresholds
He does not discuss broader environmental boundaries, such as species loss, plastic pollution, ocean acidification or climate tipping points like the Greenland ice sheet collapse and Atlantic circulation slowdown, all of which pose dangerous, irreversible risks.
Short-Term Forecasts vs. Long-Term Reality
Gates’ reference to a “predictable future” lacks a clear horizon; his temperature projections end at 2100, although warming is expected to continue into the 22nd century and beyond.
Spending Priorities: Climate vs. Human Health
He argues for granulated spending, suggesting that allocating billions to malaria eradication or hunger relief may have greater human impact than a marginal temperature reduction of 0.1–0.2 °C.
