German military leadership warns that Russia could launch an offensive against NATO by 2029 or sooner, necessitating an immediate boost in combat readiness and the rapid acquisition of long-range strike capabilities.
The 2029 Timeline
Carsten Breuer stated that various indicators, including armaments, personnel expansion, and economic and political factors, point toward 2029 as a critical moment. He emphasized that an attack could occur even sooner.
Consequently, the military priority is immediate combat readiness, followed by increased capabilities by 2029 and the establishment of a technological advantage by 2035 and beyond.
Military Presence and Strategic Gaps
Regarding the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany, Breuer noted that this does not weaken NATO’s strategic position. While it represents an economic and social blow to affected German municipalities, the move was foreseeable and does not alter the commitments of member states.
Breuer identified the decision not to deploy American Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany as a more serious issue. Germany is currently analyzing temporary solutions, such as market-available systems, to bridge the gap until domestic long-range strike capabilities are developed.
The Belarus Threat
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian intelligence is tracking Russian efforts to involve Belarus in the war. Russia is reportedly considering operations from Belarusian territory directed toward the Chernihiv-Kyiv axis or against a NATO member state.
Zelenskyy stressed that if Alexander Lukashenko decides to support these Russian intentions, Ukraine will defend itself. He has ordered Ukrainian defense and security forces to strengthen the border and develop a comprehensive response plan.