China will eliminate tax incentives on photovoltaic module exports from April 1, 2026, potentially raising green energy investment costs in Europe.
End of Low-Cost Solar Panels Looms
The era of record-low solar panel prices is coming to an end. China, the world’s leading renewable energy market, will completely abolish tax breaks on photovoltaic module exports starting April 1, 2026. This decision, combined with a sharp increase in raw material prices, creates a volatile situation that could permanently increase the cost of green energy investments in Europe.
Shift in China’s Industrial Policy
Previously, China’s industrial policy focused on extensive export support, allowing it to flood global markets with cheap components. However, this strategy is undergoing a rapid change. The export tax refund was already reduced from 13% to 9% in December of last year, and these preferences will disappear entirely on April 1, 2026.
Price Increases Expected
According to an analysis by 1Komma5°, the fiscal move alone will raise the base price of photovoltaic modules by approximately 10%. This significant price increase will be almost immediately passed on to distributors and, ultimately, to consumers.
Raw Material Costs Add Pressure
Tax issues are only one side of the coin. The industry is also grappling with an unprecedented increase in production costs. The price of polycrystalline silicon, a fundamental component of solar cells, is a key factor. The spot price of polysilicon has risen by about 30% in the last six months, currently ranging from €5.70 to €6.30 per kilogram (as of March 2026).
Rising Costs of Supporting Materials
Since September 2025, prices for glass, cells, and silver—an essential element for producing busbars—have also been trending upward. Chinese manufacturers, attempting to combat oversupply, have limited production capacity, driving up market prices. This will inevitably raise the prices of photovoltaic panels in Europe sooner or later.
Impact on Polish Investors
Experts indicate that the renewable energy market is currently at a turning point. For years, panels have been so cheap that some have even used them as fencing material. This surplus is now ending. While existing warehouse stocks in Europe may buffer price increases for a time, the pressure from China is too strong to avoid price corrections. Investors planning to expand micro-installations should prepare for the end of “bargain shopping.”
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